\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 346 Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) )
Performance meets expectations: Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) released the annual report for 21 years, the company achieved annual revenue of 19.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.9%, and net profit attributable to parent company of 15.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.4%. Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 46.51 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of - 5.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 21.0%. In terms of sectors, refining and chemical products achieved a revenue of 104.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.82, and a gross profit margin of 22.9%, a decrease of 1.5 PCT; PTA achieved a revenue of 48.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 63.6% and a gross profit margin of 2.3%, a decrease of 8.8 PCT; Polyester products achieved a revenue of 27.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 55.7% and a gross profit margin of 18.9%, an increase of 2.6 PCT; Other sectors achieved a revenue of 16.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.3% and a gross profit margin of - 1.8%, an increase of 0.2 PCT.
Under pressure from high oil prices: since 2022, the international oil price has risen sharply. The average price of Brent crude oil in 2022q1 is 102.4 US dollars / barrel, a month on month increase of + 28.2%. The average price of petrochemical products in 2022q1 is divided into: 95 gasoline is 9364.8 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of + 8.7%, PX is 8058.4 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of + 15.4%, LLDPE is 8978.9 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of + 1.7%, and the oil refining price difference is narrowed. In the context of high oil prices, it will test the company's inventory management ability and wait for whether terminal demand can recover after the epidemic, so as to make the smooth transmission of high oil prices.
New materials and fine chemical projects ensure growth: the company actively promotes new materials and fine chemical projects such as "1.6 million T / a high-performance resin and new materials project", "2.6 million T high-performance polyester project", "800000 T / a functional polyester film and functional plastic project". According to the disclosure of the company's annual report in 2021, the total budget of the company's projects under construction is 74.53 billion yuan, assuming that it is calculated according to 12% roa, After the completion of the project, it is expected to contribute 8.94 billion yuan of net profit, with considerable growth.
Combined with the current prosperity of the petrochemical industry and the project progress of the company, for example, due to the rise of oil price, we raised the price of chemicals, but reduced the gross profit margin of refining and chemical sector. Due to the impact of the epidemic on the demand side, the gross profit margin of the polyester sector was reduced. Based on the current price, the profitability of the company after the new project is put into operation is calculated. To sum up, we adjusted the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 to 2.40, 3.27 and 4.01 yuan respectively (the original forecast was 2.64, 2.99 and - yuan), the average PE of the comparable company in 22 years was 10 times, and the corresponding target price was 24.00 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
Large fluctuations in oil prices; The prosperity of the industry has declined significantly; The progress of the new project is less than expected.
