\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 541 Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) )
Production is expected to recover quarter by quarter, the undervalued value is attractive, and the “buy” rating is maintained
22q1 company signed 6.01 billion new orders, a year-on-year increase of + 14.7%, and the steel structure output was 702000 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 2.2%. The output was slightly lower than the market expectation. We judged that it was mainly related to the low prosperity of 21q4 industry and the small number of orders signed by the company in December. As of 22q1, the company’s order volume had shown an improvement trend compared with 21q4. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, we judge that driven by the recovery of industry demand, the company’s orders and output from 22q2 are expected to recover quarter by quarter. We continue to be optimistic about the company’s medium and long-term growth and maintain the profit forecast. It is expected that the performance in 22-24 years will be RMB 14 / 17.5/2.03 billion, corresponding to pe1.5 billion 3 / 12.3 / 10.5x, 22q1 or the low point of the company’s fundamentals, the valuation is attractive, and the “buy” rating is maintained.
The number of large orders increased year-on-year, and the cost transfer ability was good
In the single quarter of 20q1 / 21q1 / 22q1, the company undertook 6 / 13 / 17 manufacturing contracts with more than 10000 tons. The number of large orders in 22q1 increased significantly, and there were only 2 orders for processing with supplied materials. The single ton price of other material (including steel) orders was between 64948461 yuan / ton, which was higher than the price range of 58267924 yuan / ton in 21q1 (the central price increased by 9%). Considering that the steel price in the single quarter of 22q1 increased by 6% year-on-year, We believe that the increase in the price of a single ton reflects the company’s better cost transfer ability. In addition, the high growth in the number of large orders reflects the transformation of market demand to large-scale projects on the one hand, and the improvement of the company’s recognition in key customers on the other hand.
The production and sales volume is expected to continue to grow, and the net profit per ton is supported upward
We expect that the company’s 22-year average production capacity is expected to reach about 4.6 million tons, and the sales volume is still expected to reach about 4 million tons. The capacity utilization rate may continue to rise by about 5pct, which is expected to continue to drive the company’s net profit up. The target production capacity of the company is 5 million tons in 22 years and 4.2 million tons at the end of 21 years. The production expansion speed in 21 years is slightly slower than the market expectation, but the production expansion speed in 22 years is expected to increase, and the production release speed in the first half of the year is expected to be faster, which supports the annual output. In addition, from the perspective of government subsidies, 22q1 company has not announced government subsidies, and the part recognized from the deferred income account is expected to be relatively stable. The government subsidies received and recognized in the current period may be mainly related to the progress of production capacity construction. Therefore, theoretically, the government subsidies that the company can recognize in 22 years may not be less than 21 years, but considering the shortage of local government funds or the delay in the payment of government subsidies, We expect that the government subsidies actually recognized by the company in 22 years may be less than 21 years.
Optimistic about medium and long-term growth and maintain the “buy” rating
We continue to be optimistic about the growth sustainability brought by the company’s continuous expansion of production, incremental improvement of quality, and the company is expected to benefit from industries brought by steady growth and guaranteed housing volume in 2022 β， oneself α It also continues to show that the double increase of output and net profit per ton is expected to continue to be realized. We maintain the profit forecast. It is expected that the EPS in 22-24 years will be 2.64/3.29/3.83. At present, the comparable company’s 22-year wind unanimously expects pe13 times. The company’s business model and cost control ability are significantly better than the industry average. It is given 25 times PE in 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 66 yuan, and maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the continuous rise of steel price has a greater impact on profits than expected; The improvement rate of the company’s capacity utilization is lower than expected; The new supply of the industry exceeded expectations.
