\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 615 Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) )
Event: Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) released the announcement of pre increase of performance in the first quarter of 2022. In 2022q1, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.3-1.55 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 408% to 506%. With the increase of the delivery scale of wind turbines and the smooth promotion of the transfer and development business of wind farms, the company’s performance increased significantly.
In 2021, the rush of sea breeze loading led to a high increase in the shipment of sea breeze fans, and the delivery scale of 22q1 fans continued to increase in a high proportion. In 2021, benefiting from the rush of sea wind installation, the delivery scale of the company’s offshore wind turbine host increased significantly. According to the statistics of Bloomberg new energy finance, the installed capacity of the company’s offshore wind turbine is second only to Shanghai Electric Wind Power Group Co.Ltd(688660) , and far ahead of other competitors. The delivery scale of 22q1 company’s wind turbine continues to rise, and the gross profit margin of wind turbine is expected to remain stable, driving the company’s wind turbine business to grow significantly year-on-year.
The rolling development business of the power station was smoothly promoted, resulting in significant performance increment. By the end of 2021, the company plans to transfer 100% equity of Yangjiang Mingyang to China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , with a transaction consideration of 1.757 billion yuan. The transaction will be completed in 2022, contributing 438 million yuan of after tax profit. At present, the wind power industry chain benefits from technological upgrading such as large-scale wind turbines, and the development cost drops rapidly. The rolling development business of wind farms just enjoys the dividend of cost reduction. Superimposed on the relative shortage of wind power development resources, the sustainability and high profitability of rolling development business have been further confirmed.
Guangdong accelerated the promotion of offshore wind power, and the offshore wind power leader continued to win orders. The enthusiasm of Guangdong Haifeng construction is high. According to the public bidding, the construction cost has been reduced to 14000 yuan / kW. Considering the land subsidy of 1500 yuan / kW and the utilization hours of more than 4000H, the development economy has been guaranteed, and the demand at the initial stage of parity is rapid and large-scale. At present, Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) wind turbines have been selected for the Qingzhou I and II projects (1GW in total) of Guangdong energy group, superimposed with the Qingzhou IV Project (0.5gw) owned by Mingyang. In the early stage of the development of offshore wind power parity, Mingyang may win more than 1.5gw wind turbine orders, which is far ahead of other competitors, and the leading position of offshore wind turbines is stable.
Strategic investment in sea based new energy to accelerate the layout of energy storage. In terms of energy storage, the company plans to increase its capital by 190 million to Haiji new energy (the top three energy storage battery shipments in 2020) and hold 13% of its equity. This time, Mingyang shares in Haiji new energy, forming an industrial closed loop of PCs (Mingyang) + EMS (Mingyang) + battery (Haiji / catl (strategic cooperation)). It is expected to provide the power station owner with an integrated solution of wind farm + energy storage, and realize business complementarity and empowerment through differentiated competition, Strengthen the leading position.
Profit forecast: the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.319/40.20/4.322 billion from 2021 to 2023, corresponding to 13.6/11.2/10.4 times of the valuation, and maintain the rating of “overweight”.
Risk tip: the demand for offshore wind power is less than expected, and the price of raw materials rises sharply.
