\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 58 Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) )
Key investment points
Performance summary: in 2021, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.25 billion yuan (+ 20.1%), net profit attributable to parent company of 380 million yuan (- 36.8%), net profit attributable to parent company of 350 million yuan (+ 3.5%) deducted, including Q4 operating revenue of 520 million yuan (+ 43.8%), net profit attributable to parent company of 40 million yuan (- 60.9%).
The profit contributed by the company’s main business grew well, the gross profit margin was stable, and the R & D expense rate increased. The non recurring profit and loss in 2020 is mainly the investment income generated by the company’s sale of the equity of Zhejiang Beida pharmaceutical. Excluding this influencing factor, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to increase year-on-year in the reporting period. The impact of the company’s restricted stock incentive plan in 2021 on the expenses during the reporting period is about 64 ~ 66 million yuan. If it is added back to amortization, the growth rate of the company’s deducted non net profit will be more than 20%. The annual gross profit margin was 92.2% (- 0.4pp), which remained stable. Financial expense rate (. 5p-1.0%) and management expense rate (. 5p-1.0%). The sales expense rate is 36.3% (- 0.3pp). The R & D expense rate was 25.2% (+ 5.8pp), mainly due to the increase of R & D investment in new drug projects.
Ektinib maintained a good growth trend, and the first-line treatment of ensatinib was approved for listing and ready to go. Ektinib is the main source of revenue and profit of the company. It was newly approved for postoperative adjuvant therapy in 2021 and included in the national medical insurance catalogue. It is the only generation of EGFR-TKI used for postoperative adjuvant therapy for patients with early lung cancer in the world. The second-line treatment of locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC with nsatinib was included in the national medical insurance catalogue at the end of 2021, and the first-line treatment of ALK mutant NSCLC was approved for listing in March 2022, with sufficient follow-up growth potential. Ektinib and nsatinib contributed a total revenue of 2.25 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 20.1%, reaching the equity incentive target.
The R & D investment was increased, the pipeline was promoted smoothly, and bevacizumab biological similar drugs were approved for listing. In November 2021 and March 2022, several tumor indications of bevacizumab biological analogue bevacizumab were approved for marketing. The company is currently developing 17 varieties, including 2 BLA / NDA, 2 phase III, 1 phase II / III and 5 phase II. The listed and developing varieties of the company cover all major mutation types of NSCLC, including EGFR, ALK, KRAS and other mutations. In addition, the company has laid out several popular targets in the tumor field, including CDK4 / 6, PD-1, CTLA-4, FGFR, etc., laying the foundation for the long-term development of the company. Judging from the approved listing progress, the third-generation EGFR inhibitor bevotinib is expected to be approved for listing in 2022 and voronib is expected to be approved for listing in 2023.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.11 yuan, 1.56 yuan and 2.41 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 49, 35 and 22 times respectively. The company’s core product ektinib is in stable and large volume, the new product ensatinib contributes to the increment, and the sales revenue is growing steadily. The company’s pipeline under research is progressing smoothly, and new drugs will be listed in succession in the future. Maintain a “hold” rating.
Risk warning: the progress of product research and development is lower than expected, and the sales of listed products are lower than expected.
