\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 949 Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) )
The main design industry grew steadily, and the per capita output value increased significantly. The company achieved a revenue of 2.88 billion yuan in 2021, with a significant year-on-year increase of 52%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 110 million yuan, a decrease of 39% at the same time. Due to the single provision for bad debt of 100 million yuan for individual customer receivable assets, if this factor is restored, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be about 210 million yuan, an increase of 28% at the same time, with a relatively stable growth. In terms of business segments, in 2021, the company’s architectural design / cost consulting / EPC achieved revenue of 1.54/2.3/1.09 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of 25% / 34% / 137% respectively. With the continuous and smooth promotion of EPC orders in the early stage, the company’s EPC business revenue was significantly large. The revenue of prefabricated architectural design business was 580 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 52%. The company’s advantageous prefabricated business continued its rapid expansion trend.
Quarter by quarter, q1-4 achieved revenue of RMB 370 / 6.9 / 7.9 / 1.04 billion respectively, an increase of 92% / 73% / 46% / 36% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -0.08/0.73/0.76/ – 36 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of + 71% / + 11% / + 8% / – 156%. In terms of orders, in 2021, the newly signed contracts for architectural design of the company were 2.44 billion yuan, an increase of 5%, of which the newly signed contracts for modular design business were 1.09 billion yuan, an increase of 19%, accounting for 45%, yoy + 5 PCTs; The newly signed contract for cost consulting business was 450 million yuan, an increase of 27% at the same time. In terms of per capita output value, excluding EPC business, the per capita output value of the company in 2021 was 346000 yuan and yoy + 55000 yuan, with a significant increase in per capita output value and continuous optimization of operating efficiency. The company plans to pay a cash dividend of about 58.81 million yuan, with a dividend rate of 56%, yoy + 11 PCTs.
During the expansion period, the gross profit margin decreased and the cash flow performance was excellent. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company was 20.9%, a decrease of 5.5 PCT over the previous year, of which the gross profit margin of architectural design / EPC business was 31.8% / 2.7% and yoy-1.6 / – 2.2 PCT respectively. The decline in the gross profit margin of design business is expected to be mainly due to the rapid expansion of the company’s business and the advance of labor and other costs; The decrease in the gross profit margin of EPC business is expected to be mainly due to the increase in the cost of raw materials. During the period, the expense rate was 11.2%, a decrease of 1.5 PCT compared with the previous year, of which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate changed by – 0.2 / – 1.1 / – 0.5 / + 0.2 PCT respectively, and the sales, management and financial expense rate decreased. It is expected that the main reason is that the relevant rate of the company’s EPC business is lower than that of the main design business, and the overall expense rate of the company decreased after the rapid increase of EPC revenue scale; The increase in the financial expense rate is mainly due to the implementation of the new leasing standards in the current period (the new title of “leasing liabilities” under the new standards is newly established, and its interest is included in the financial expenses, which is 6.67 million yuan in the current period), and the first year interest payment of the company’s convertible bonds in the current period (about 1.8 million yuan). The impairment loss of assets (including credit) was about 160 million yuan, an increase of 110 million yuan year-on-year. Net profit margin decreased by 5.5 PCT to 3.7%. In 2021, the company’s net operating cash flow inflow was 240 million yuan, continuing the large net inflow state of the previous year, with a cash to cash ratio of 101%, yoy + 3 PCTs. Under the continuous tight financing of the real estate chain last year, the company still achieved substantial payment collection and excellent profit quality.
The development of assembly and BIM business is accelerated, and the medium and long-term growth power is sufficient. In terms of assembly, the company has accelerated the expansion of the scale of assembly architectural design business in recent years. Orders accounted for nearly half in 2021, becoming one of the core drivers of the company’s growth. In terms of BIM, the company has rich reserves of technology and development capacity. At present, Huayang city technology company has more than 130 employees and has successively developed and launched the ibim platform v4 Version 0 and Huayang quick build version 2022. At the same time, the company actively promotes the external cooperation of BIM business. On the one hand, the company cooperates with Zwsoft Co.Ltd(Guangzhou)(688083) to develop domestic BIM platform to help realize self-control and solve the problem of “bottleneck” in the industry; On the other hand, it cooperates with Wanyi technology, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Vanke engaged in real estate technology research and development, and cooperates in AI drawing review based on CAD form, data docking between AI drawing review platform and capolibim platform, AI enabling design scenario, BIM cooperative research and development, etc. the accelerated promotion of BIM business is expected to create a new business growth point of the company.
Investment suggestion: we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 252 / 314 / 386 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 140% / 24% / 23%, corresponding to EPS of RMB 1.29/1.60/1.97, and the current share price corresponding to PE of 12 / 10 / 8 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: policy risks in the real estate industry, risks of less than expected expansion of assembly and BIM business, cross regional operation risks, etc.
