\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 142 Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) )
Matters:
Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) released the 2021 annual report. In 2021, the annual operating revenue was 52.77 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 19.55 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29.9% and roe16.6% 63%, up 1.73 PCT from last year. At the end of the year, the total assets were 2.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 23.9% over the end of the previous year. The profit distribution plan of the company in 2021 is: it is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 5 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, with a dividend rate of 17.57%.
Ping An View:
Profit growth accelerated, and non interest driven revenue increased. The company achieved a year-on-year increase of 29.9% (vs 26.9%, 21q1-3) in the net profit attributable to the parent company in the whole year of 21 years, accelerated the profit growth, and achieved a year-on-year increase of 28.4% (vs 28.5%, 21q1-3). We believe that the increase of profit growth is due to the high increase of revenue, and the release of provision is also an important factor to promote the acceleration of the company's profit. From the perspective of revenue, the high growth of medium revenue and investment income has become a two wheel driving factor: 1) the company's non interest income in 21 years increased by 51.5% (vs + 51.8%, 21q1 - 3) year-on-year, maintaining a high growth, accounting for 5.8pct to 38.0% of revenue year-on-year. The growth of non interest income was mainly contributed by investment income. In the past 21 years, the company's investment income remained strong under the high base of last year, with a year-on-year increase of 36.5%, mainly benefiting from the recovery of the bond market in the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter. 2) In the 21st year, the net income of handling charges and commissions increased by 30.3% (vs + 5.9%, 21q1-3) year-on-year. The growth rate continued to repair compared with the first half of the year and returned to a higher level. We judge that it is mainly driven by the rapid growth of wealth management income in the second half of the year. Among them, agency income has become the main component of the company's medium income, accounting for 92.4% of the handling fee income, maintaining a high-quality development trend, with a year-on-year increase of 33.1% (vs + 13.2%, 21h). 3) 21. The annual net interest income increased by 17.4% (vs + 17.8%, 21q1-3) year-on-year, which was basically the same as that in the first three quarters.
The decline in loan pricing dragged down the narrowing of interest margin, and the debt side advantage continued to consolidate. The company's 21-year net interest margin is 2.21% (vs2.29%, 21q3). We believe that the narrowing of interest margin is mainly affected by asset side, especially loan pricing. On the asset side, the company's 21-year interest bearing asset yield is 4.59% (- 9bp, YoY), of which the loan yield is down 25bp to 5.75% year-on-year, somewhat down, but still maintained at a high profit level. The cost on the liability side is still improving. The 21-year interest payment debt cost ratio is 2.13% (- 1bp, YoY), in which the deposit cost remains low and remains ahead of the standard peers, and the deposit cost ratio is 1.83% (- 3bp, YoY). Among them, the cost of corporate deposits has been significantly reduced, down 13bp to 1.62% year-on-year, and the cost of individual deposits has increased 26bp to 2.62% year-on-year, which is mainly affected by the intensified competition of individual deposits in the industry.
In terms of scale, the total assets of the company maintained rapid expansion at the end of 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 23.9% (vs + 23.7%, 21q3), and the loan growth rate in 21 years reached 25.5% (vs + 27.6%, 21q3), faster than the growth rate of total assets. In terms of loan structure, personal loans increased by 27.3% year-on-year, and the investment intensity continued to tilt towards high-yield assets. The scale of personal consumption loans and business loans increased by 23.2% / 26.6% year-on-year, accounting for 66.0% / 22.8% of personal loans respectively. In terms of liabilities, the advantages of deposits have been continuously consolidated. The company's deposits have increased by 13.8% (vs + 13.1%, 21q3) in the past 21 years, and the growth rate has increased steadily. In the face of the increasing pressure of the industry, especially small and medium-sized banks, the company, as a benchmark of urban commercial banks, reflects a strong debt side advantage.
The quality of assets remained excellent and the level of provision coverage remained high. The non-performing rate of the company at the end of 21 was 0.77%, down 1bp from Q3, maintaining a low level in the industry. We estimate that the non-performing rate of the company in 21 years is 0.65%, a year-on-year decrease of 6BP, and the non-performing rate continues to remain low. From the perspective of forward-looking indicators, the concern rate of the company at the end of the year was 0.48%, up 10bp month on month, and the absolute level was at a low level. On the whole, the asset quality performance of the company continued to be better than that of its peers. The company's 21-year provision coverage rate was 526%, up 10.2pct month on month. The provision was ahead of the industry and continued to consolidate. The provision ratio was 4.03%, unchanged month on month Q3, and the risk offset ability was outstanding.
Investment suggestion: Retail transformation, high-quality development, optimistic about the company's high profitability Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) as the benchmark of urban commercial banks, it has benefited from the diversified ownership structure, market-oriented governance mechanism and the strategic determination brought by the stable management team. Its assets and liabilities have expanded steadily and its profitability is ahead of its peers. In 2021, the company's profit growth rate was further improved, and the asset quality remained excellent. At present, the provision coverage level of more than 500% has supported the company's steady operation and performance flexibility. Over the years, the company has deeply cultivated the customer base of small and micro enterprises, the scale of small and micro loans has grown steadily, continued to focus on the expansion of large retail business and light capital business, and the retail loans have maintained a high growth. Therefore, we continue to be optimistic about the sustainability of the rapid growth of the company's profits. In combination with the company's 2021 annual report, taking into account the continuous improvement of asset quality, we raised the company's profit forecast for 22 and 23 years, and added a new 24-year profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's EPS in 2022, 2023 and 2024 will be 3.64/4.35/5.20 yuan respectively (the original forecast value of 22 / 23 is 3.55/4.21 yuan respectively), and the corresponding profit growth rate will be 23.0% / 19.7% / 19.4% (the original forecast value of 22 / 23 is 20.0% / 18.6% respectively). At present, the Pb of Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) corresponding to 22 / 23 / 24 years is 1.70x/1.46x/1.25x respectively. In view of the company's profitability and asset quality leading the industry, the rating of "strongly recommended" is maintained.
Risk tips: 1) macroeconomic downturn leads to higher than expected pressure on asset quality of the industry. 2) The decline in interest rates led to a narrower than expected industry interest margin. 3) The increase of cash flow pressure of real estate enterprises leads to the rise of credit risk.
