\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 636 Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) )
Event: in 2021, the company achieved revenue of 14.573 billion yuan (+ 51.12%), net profit attributable to parent company was 4.234 billion yuan (+ 133.38%), and net profit not attributable to parent company was 4.152 billion yuan (+ 142.26%); Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 3.807 billion yuan (+ 23.26%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 575 million yuan (- 3.79%), and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company was 562 million yuan (- 4.15%); At the same time, the dividend of RMB 71.0 (including cash tax) is distributed to shareholders at the proportion of RMB 10.0 per share.
Comments:
The high view of float has pushed up the performance elasticity, and the performance has reached a new high in 21 years. In 2021, the company realized 118.91 million heavy boxes of various float glass original pieces, with a year-on-year increase of 5.14 million heavy boxes; From the price side, float glass showed an inverted “V” trend throughout the year. In the first half of the year, with the strong support of the completion of real estate, the price of float glass continued to rise, reaching a high point in Q3, and the national average price of float glass exceeded 3000 yuan / ton (including tax). However, with the tightening of financing of real estate enterprises, there were thunderstorms in some real estate enterprises, the demand for real estate gradually weakened, and the price of Q4 glass fell from a high level; In 2021, the average price of float glass of the company was about 104 yuan / heavy container (excluding tax), with a year-on-year increase of about 30 yuan / heavy container. Based on the full caliber profit, the average net profit of the company was about 35.5 yuan / heavy container, a record high; In 2021, the company accrued impairment of various assets of about 102 million yuan, of which Q4 impairment was about 92 million yuan, affecting the current profit. Looking forward to the float glass industry in 2022, the current overall pressure on the real estate and the repeated impact of the epidemic, and the low shock of float glass. We believe that in the second quarter, with the marginal improvement of the epidemic, the suppressed demand is expected to be released, and the price of float glass will open a new round of price rise. At the same time, with the rising cost of raw fuels such as soda ash, petroleum coke and natural gas, the cost gap between leading enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises has widened.
Abundant cash flow supports the rapid expansion of the industrial chain. At the end of the reporting period, the company’s net operating cash flow was RMB 5.073 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 62.71%, of which Q4’s net operating cash flow was RMB 1.134 billion; The company has abundant cash flow. On the one hand, it supports the rapid expansion of the industrial chain and ensures the steady progress of various businesses; On the other hand, the company has maintained a high dividend ratio to repay shareholders in the past three years. In 2022, the company plans to distribute cash dividends of RMB 8.0 (including tax) to shareholders for every 10 shares with undistributed profits, with a cash dividend ratio of 50.71%, and sufficient cash flow to support high dividends. In the 21st year, the company’s 1.5 billion convertible bond raised investment project Changxing energy-saving glass, Tianjin energy-saving glass base and Hunan energy-saving glass phase II construction were successively put into operation. The company’s energy-saving glass business maintained rapid growth and steadily improved its profitability. In 2021, the sales volume of energy-saving glass was 32.6 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 48.8%, and the gross profit margin reached 42%, with a year-on-year increase of about 9 PCT; According to the action plan for Green Building Construction released by the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, by 2022, the proportion of green building area in new urban buildings will reach 70%. In the future, there will be a strong demand for building energy-saving glass. With the gradual release of the company’s production capacity, the market share will further increase.
Accelerate the expansion of photovoltaic capacity and create new performance growth points. We believe that the company has actively laid out the photovoltaic field, embraced the new energy track, and built the second main business of photovoltaic, which is beginning to take shape. According to the company’s photovoltaic glass construction plan, in the early stage, the company has planned to build five 1200 T / D production lines and supporting deep-processing production lines in Chenzhou, Hunan, Zhangzhou, Fujian, Shaoxing, Zhejiang and Ningbo, Zhejiang. At the same time, it plans to build two 1200 T / D production lines in Malaysia. In addition, the company plans to build another 1200 T / D production line (phase II) in Dongshan Zhangzhou base and four 1200 T / D production lines in Zhaotong, Yunnan, It is expected that by 2025, regardless of the production capacity of float conversion, the company’s photovoltaic glass production capacity will also reach 14400 tons / day. In the future, the company’s photovoltaic glass production capacity will jump to the top of the industry. With the continuous production of photovoltaic glass production capacity, it will bring new performance growth points. At the same time, the company set up a subsidiary to build a distributed photovoltaic power station project, which can improve its own power generation and reduce the cost of electricity; On the other hand, the company has accumulated experience in the construction and operation of photovoltaic power stations. In the future, under the background of double carbon, the company is expected to lay out the photovoltaic field at a deeper level.
Electronic glass and medicine glass are advancing steadily, and the product structure is expected to be continuously optimized in the future. The company’s electronic glass technology path has basically achieved a breakthrough. At present, it strives to improve market share and brand effect, and actively promotes the construction of phase II production line; At the same time, the first phase of neutral borosilicate medicinal glass has been put into commercial operation in October 21, and some products have been mass produced and sold. At present, the construction of phase II production line project is also being promoted; Electronic glass and neutral borosilicate tube have broad domestic substitution space. Relying on the advantages of resources, channels and costs, the company is expected to emerge suddenly. In the future, the product structure will be more optimized, high-end products will improve the company’s competitive barriers, and the overall valuation is expected to rise.
Investment suggestion: the company accelerates the expansion of photovoltaic glass production capacity, and the extension of industrial chain opens up future growth. Considering the rise of float glass cost and the decline of price in 2022, we adjust the company’s performance from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 3.92 billion, 5.03 billion and 6.11 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.46, 1.87 and 2.27 respectively, and corresponding PE valuation of 9, 7 and 5.8 times respectively; Maintain the “buy” rating and adjust the target price range to 20.44-21.9 yuan.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials continues to rise, and the cost pressure intensifies; Real estate investment is significantly lower than expected; The progress of new business development is less than expected; Environmental protection supervision was relaxed, and the withdrawal progress of production capacity was less than expected.
