\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 590 Beijing Konruns Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603590) )
Event:
On April 6, the company issued the announcement on purchasing innovative assets of traditional Chinese medicine. The company plans to use its own funds to purchase the intellectual property rights and all rights under "Jincao tablet" from Beijing United Zhongchuang Pharmaceutical Technology Co., Ltd. The purchase price of Jincao tablet is 134 million yuan, which is divided into four phases, and 30% of the cost will be paid after the handover of technical achievements and materials; 30% of the fee shall be paid after the change of the patentee; 30% of the fee will be paid after the clinical phase III trial report is disclosed and 10% of the fee will be paid after the new drug certificate issued by the State Food and drug administration.
Jincao tablet is a class 1.2 new Chinese medicine, and the layout of "global new" continues to be promoted. Jincao tablet belongs to class 1.2 new drug of Chinese traditional medicine under research (class 5 new drug of the original traditional Chinese Medicine). Its main component is total iridoid glycosides, which is extracted from the whole grass of Ajuga. The material basis and function of Jincao tablet are more clear. The main application scenario is for chronic pelvic pain, the sequelae of pelvic inflammatory diseases. From the perspective of product characteristics, Jincao tablet, as a new class 1.2 traditional Chinese medicine, meets the company's "global new" standard. With the promotion of R & D of kc1036 and other products, the company's new drug product pipeline is expected to further enrich and thicken the company's performance.
The clinical phase II of Jincao tablet has been successfully completed and is about to enter the phase III trial. At present, Jincao tablet has successfully completed the phase II clinical trial on the efficacy and safety of chronic pelvic pain, and is about to enter the phase III clinical trial. In terms of effectiveness, according to the clinical phase II data disclosed at present, the analgesic effect of Jincao tablet is excellent. The pain disappearance rates in the high-dose and low-dose groups are 53.45% and 43.33%, significantly higher than 11.86% in the placebo group. The clinical performance is excellent. In terms of safety, the published data show that Jincao tablet has good safety and tolerance. The incidence of adverse events in high-dose and low-dose groups are 3.45% and 1.67% respectively, lower than 5.08% in placebo group. On the whole, the clinical effect of Jincao tablet is clear, the clinical trial is progressing smoothly, and it is expected to be approved for listing in 2024.
Improve the gold release system after listing. The company's sales system and model are perfect, and its sales network is all over the country. If Jincao tablet is listed in 2024, the company is expected to lay the foundation for its rapid and large-scale production through its own sales platform. According to the announcement, it is estimated that from 2024 to 2026, Jincao tablet will realize operating revenue of 180635 million yuan, 502094 million yuan and 110568 million yuan; The net profit is expected to be 5.681 million yuan, 157909 million yuan and 347737 million yuan, and is expected to reach the sales peak of Nan Jing Xin Jie Kou Department Store Co.Ltd(600682) 6 million yuan in 2034.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company's diluted EPS from 2021 to 2023 to be 1.38 yuan, 1.63 yuan and 1.91 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic P / E ratios are 21.18 times, 17.93 times and 15.30 times respectively Beijing Konruns Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603590) as a leading enterprise in the subdivided field of China's hemagglutinase preparation industry, benefiting from the recovery of the number of surgeries in medical institutions, the company's R & D projects have been smoothly promoted through continuous R & D innovation and the introduction of rich product pipelines. At the same time, the introduction of innovative traditional Chinese medicine has further enriched the pipelines. In the future, the company is expected to usher in the diversified realization of innovative achievements and maintain the buy rating.
Risk tips: policy risk, R & D risk less than expected, M & a risk less than expected.
