\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 677 Zhejiang Meida Industrial Co.Ltd(002677) )
Key investment points
The company issued the annual report of 2021:
2021: income, return to parent and deduction of non-profit points are 2.16 billion, 665 million and 635 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 22%, + 22% and + 17%. 2021 single Q4: income, return to parent and deduction of non-profit points are 630 million, 210 million and 200 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 6%, 3% and – 5%.
Revenue:
The company’s quarterly revenue growth rate was + 229% / + 1% / + 18% / + 6% respectively, with large fluctuations between quarters. We believe that it is caused by the delayed recognition of part of the revenue of Q2 and Q4 major promotion nodes under the background of large growth of e-commerce channels in 2021.
From the perspective of channel construction: ① the traditional offline distribution has maintained a good growth: at present, there are more than 1900 primary dealers (more than 1600 in 20 years) and more than 3800 terminal stores (more than 3300 in 20 years); ② Ka channels are growing rapidly: the company has increased its presence in famous Ka stores of building materials and household appliances such as Red Star Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) , Easyhome New Retail Group Corporation Limited(000785) , Gome and Suning, with a total of more than 2500 (more than 800 in 20 years); ③ Engineering, home decoration and community: more than 10 fine decoration projects have been implemented in 21 years, and more than 80 community stores have been opened; ④ E-commerce channels: the company made a big breakthrough. The whole network sales of shuang11 company exceeded 250 million, with a year-on-year increase of 425%.
Profit:
Gross profit margin: 51.7% for the whole year, year-on-year -1pct, Q4 is 50.8%, year-on-year -4.6pct; We note that the company’s H2 gross profit margin has increased year-on-year, which is mainly affected by the pressure of raw materials. The proportion of direct materials in the operating cost of the company’s integrated stove products in the whole year has increased 6pct to 77% compared with 2020, which can be confirmed from the side.
Expense rate: the annual sales, management and R & D expense rates were 11.2%, 3.3% and 3.2% respectively, with little change compared with 2020; It is worth noting that the company’s Q3 and Q4 sales expense rates decreased by 0.4 and 1.1pct respectively compared with the same period in 2020. It is expected that the company has controlled the expense investment under the cost pressure.
Net interest rate: the annual parent net interest rate is 30.7%, which is basically the same as that in 2020, of which the net interest rate of Q4 is 33.9%, which is -0.1pct compared with the same period, still maintaining the highest profitability in the industry.
Investment suggestions:
Considering that the price of raw materials in 22q1 has increased again and the epidemic has a certain interference on the sales of household appliances with strong installation attributes, we lowered the company’s profit forecast for 2022 and 2023 and introduced the forecast for 2024 at the same time. It is estimated that the company’s revenue in 22-24 years will be 2.54 billion, 2.93 billion and 3.27 billion (originally 2.71 billion and 3.23 billion in 22-23 years), yoy + 17%, 15% and 12%; It is estimated that the performance in 22-24 years will be 770 million, 900 million and 1 billion (formerly 780 million and 930 million in 22-23 years), yoy + 16%, 17% and 12%. Maintain the “buy” proposal.
Risk tips:
The entry of cross-border giants has led to the deterioration of competition, less than expected channel expansion, more than expected decline in real estate and a sharp rise in raw materials
