\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 096 Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) )
Event overview
Event 1: on March 30, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021. The annual operating income was 63.249 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.37%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.642 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 123877%, and the net cash flow from operating activities was 7.749 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 69.76% and EPS 1.5% 98 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 942.01%. At the same time, the company released its business objectives for 2022. In 2022, the company expects to produce and sell 5.95 million tons of phosphorus compound fertilizer (phosphorus fertilizer + compound fertilizer), 1.78 million tons of urea, 98000 tons of polyoxymethylene, 560000 tons of feed grade calcium hydrogen phosphate, 30000 tons of yellow phosphorus and 50000 tons of iron phosphate.
Event 2: on April 6, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 of 2022 will be 1.640 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 185.18%, and the net profit deducted from non net profit is expected to be 1.588 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 223.42%.
Analysis and judgment:
Supply and demand continued to be tight, with record performance.
The substantial improvement of the company’s performance in 2021 was mainly due to the upward trend of the agricultural industry cycle, which promoted the rise of product prices. During the reporting period, the company’s main products such as ammonium phosphate, compound fertilizer, urea, feed grade calcium salt, polyoxymethylene and yellow phosphorus achieved sales revenue of RMB 132.89/27.59/33.82/15.25/13.80/351 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 25.47% / – 9.39% / + 25.70% / + 40.53% / + 39.82% / – 13.51%; The gross sales profit was 4.067/3.83/13.24/3.85/6.21/157 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 23.52% / + 6.75% / + 39.35% / + 99.09% / + 109.52% / + 143.64%. The total operating revenue of the above main products in 2021 was about 22.686 billion yuan, accounting for 85.97% of the company’s non trade business revenue, and the total gross sales profit was about 6.937 billion yuan, accounting for 62.13% of the company’s non trade business gross profit. In 2021, the overall sales volume of the company’s products decreased slightly, but the prices of various products increased significantly. Specifically, the average sales price of ammonium phosphate of the company in 2021 was about 2960 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 36.65%; The average sales price of compound fertilizer was about 2486 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 7.49%; The average selling price of urea was about 2240 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 37.67%; The average sales price of feed grade calcium salt was about 2933 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 42.01%; The average sales price of polyoxymethylene was about 14728 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 36.09%; The average selling price of yellow phosphorus was about 19609 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 42.05%. The sharp rise in the price of the company’s main products is the main reason for the rise in current performance.
In 2022, Q1 company is expected to realize the deduction of non net profit of 1.588 billion yuan, a record high. According to the company’s announcement, in 2022, all units of Q1 company will realize full load operation and fully complete the tasks of “light fertilizer storage” and “summer tube fertilizer” storage in China. The market price of phosphate fertilizer in China has basically remained stable, the supply-demand relationship in the international fertilizer market is tight, and the international fertilizer price has remained high. We expect that the substantial increase in the sales volume of the company’s main products such as phosphate fertilizer is the main reason for the significant growth of Q1 performance in 2022.
Self sufficiency phosphate rock provides cost advantages, and the management is continuously optimized to ensure the release of profits.
The world’s basic phosphate rock reserves are about 67 billion tons, of which Africa and the Middle East account for nearly 80%. China’s basic phosphate rock reserves are about 3.24 billion tons, accounting for about 4.84%, ranking second in the world. According to the data of Zhuo Chuang information, China’s phosphate rock output was about 103 million tons in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 7.29%, but the overall supply and demand is still tight. The price of China’s phosphate rock (30%) has risen from 360 yuan / ton in early 2021 to 630 yuan / ton, up by 75%. At present, the company has a raw ore production capacity of 14.5 million tons / year, a scrubbing and beneficiation production capacity of 6.18 million tons and a flotation production capacity of 7.5 million tons. It is one of the largest phosphate ore mining and beneficiation enterprises in China. In 2021, the company produced 12.39 million tons of phosphate ore. As one of the largest phosphate fertilizer production enterprises in China, the company is basically self-sufficient in phosphate rock resources and has a great cost advantage compared with its peers.
At the same time, in 2021, by strengthening internal management, the scale of three fees continued to decline. Specifically, the sales expense was 755 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 69.79%, the management expense was 1.226 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.11%, and the financial expense was 1.287 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.76%. While the operating revenue and net profit increased significantly, the company’s expenses showed a significant downward trend, indicating that the company’s internal management has been greatly optimized, laying a solid foundation for the continuous release of the company’s future profits.
Seize the development opportunities of new energy and vertically build lithium battery and fluorine chemical industry clusters.
In 2021, the company focused on resources and industrial advantages, promoted the vertical extension of the industry, promoted the transformation of industrial structure, and seized the development opportunities of new energy industry. On October 30, 2021, the company announced the construction of 500000 ton iron phosphate project. According to the announcement, the company plans to invest in the construction of 500000 ton / year iron phosphate battery new material precursors and supporting projects in Caopu chemical park, Anning Industrial Park, Anning City, Yunnan Province, with an overall estimated investment of 7.286 billion yuan. Among them, it is planned to invest in a new 100000 t / a iron phosphate project and supporting facilities, which is expected to be completed in June 2022; Planned investment in new construction 2 × The 200000 ton iron phosphate project and supporting facilities are expected to be completed in December 2023.
On February 17, 2022, the company and Yuxi Municipal government, Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) signed the new energy battery whole industry chain project cooperation agreement. The agreement stipulates that two companies will be jointly established in Yuxi City, one mainly engaged in mineral resources development and the other mainly engaged in mineral deep processing (the shareholding ratio of the company is 17%). In the future, all parties will work together through the mineral development company to obtain the local mineral development rights of Yuxi City matching the cooperation scale of all parties in a legal and compliant manner. At the same time, it is planned to build new energy battery, lithium battery isolation film, iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate, copper foil and other battery supporting projects in Yuxi City around the target mineral resources of Yuxi City in the future. Specifically, the company plans to invest in three phases with Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) plans: the first phase of the project promises to invest about 18.05 billion yuan, which will be completed before December 31, 2023; The committed investment of phase II of the project is about 33.65 billion yuan, which will be completed before December 31, 2025; The third phase of the project is planned to be completed by 2030.
In the field of fluorine chemical industry, take fluorosilicic acid, a by-product of phosphate fertilizer, as raw material and hydrogen fluoride as raw material to build a medium and high-end fluorine chemical industry and vertically extend the fluorine chemical industry chain. In 2021, the company will build a 1500 T / a production capacity of Fluoronitrobenzene, a pharmaceutical intermediate, and produce 354 tons of products; The 10000 t / a magnesium fluosilicate project will be completed and 1673 tons of products will be produced. At the same time, the construction of ammonium fluoride / ammonium hydrogen fluoride project will be stepped up. The company cooperates with Hunan nonferrous metals investment Co., Ltd. to set up a joint-stock company Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) fluorine chemistry, build an annual output of 35000 tons of aluminum fluoride project, and produce 31000 tons of aluminum fluoride products in 2021; Cooperate with Guizhou Wengfu Lantian fluorochemical Co., Ltd. to establish a joint-stock company Wengfu Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , build an annual production of 30000 tons of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride project, and produce 30000 tons of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride products in 2021; The company cooperated with Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) to set up a joint-stock company fluorophosphorus electronic construction 2 × 15000 T / a anhydrous hydrofluoric acid (intermediate product) Co produces 15000 T / a high-quality white carbon black, 5000 t / a lithium hexafluorophosphate and 20000 t / a electronic hydrofluoric acid production unit. At present, the projects related to Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) cooperation are under construction.
Investment advice
The prosperity of phosphorus chemical industry continues to rise in 2022. We adjusted the previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 640.55/65.00/70.130 billion yuan respectively (previously predicted that the operating revenue from 2022 to 2023 will be 54.786/56.10 billion yuan respectively), with a year-on-year increase of + 1.3% / + 1.5% / + 7.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 53.61/60.80/67.34 billion yuan respectively (previously predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 will be 1.42/2.172 billion yuan respectively), with a year-on-year increase of + 47.2% / + 13.4% / + 10.8%, EPS is 2.92/3.31/3.67 yuan respectively (previously predicted EPS is 1.00/1.18 yuan respectively from 2022 to 2023), corresponding to the closing price of 27.62 yuan on April 7, 2022, and PE is 9 / 8 / 8 times respectively. In the future, as a leading enterprise of phosphorus chemical industry, the company is expected to build an integrated industrial chain of phosphorus chemical industry, fluorine chemical industry and new energy by virtue of its advantages in mineral resources and upstream and downstream industries. We judge that the company is expected to usher in a major transformation in the future. We are optimistic about the future growth of the company and maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk tips
The price of phosphate fertilizer fell sharply, and the development of the company’s new energy industry was less than expected.
