\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 636 Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) )
Event:
The company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 14.573 billion yuan, an increase of 51.12% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.234 billion yuan, an increase of 133.38% at the same time; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 4.152 billion, an increase of 142.26% at the same time. In the fourth quarter alone, the company’s revenue was 3.807 billion yuan, an increase of 23.26% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 575 million yuan, with a decrease of 3.79%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 562 million yuan, with a decrease of 4.15%. The company announced the profit distribution plan for 2021, and distributed a cash dividend of 8 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, with a cash dividend ratio of 50.71%.
Comments:
The annual performance is in line with expectations, and the performance of 21q4 is under pressure, but the profitability is still at an all-time high. During the reporting period, the company sold 118.91 million heavy cases of original float glass, and the price per heavy case was 104 yuan, an increase of 30 yuan; The gross profit per unit weight box was 54 yuan, an increase of 26 yuan, and the gross profit rate of float glass sector was 51.57%, an increase of 14.36pct. The strong performance of float glass profit mainly benefited from the continuous rise of float glass price in the first three quarters.
21q4 is subject to the shortage of funds in the real estate chain, the real demand for glass and market sentiment have cooled to a certain extent, and the price has also fallen from the high point of the cycle. As of December 31, 2021, the price of glass has dropped to 2087 yuan / ton, a decrease of 30% compared with the end of September. On the cost side, the price of heavy soda ash continues to rise. In 2021q4, the national average price of heavy soda ash is 3391 yuan / ton, an increase of 72% and 98% year-on-year compared with the average price in the first three quarters of 21 years. In addition, the prices of natural gas, petroleum coke and other fuels are also rising in the heating season, and the overall cost increase is more obvious. The gross profit margin of single Q4 company was 37.56%, down 4.45pct, but it is still at a historically high level.
Continue to develop photovoltaic glass, and the growth certainty is improved again. The company plans to invest and build 1200t / D photovoltaic glass production line (phase II) in Zhangzhou, Fujian, and four 1200t / D photovoltaic glass production lines in Zhaotong, Yunnan, with supporting quartz sand production base. According to the previous announcement, seven 1200t / D photovoltaic glass production lines have been under construction and planned outside China, so the current planned total capacity has reached 14400t / D (excluding the ultra white floating production line for converting photovoltaic products). As the leader of float glass in China, the company still has cost advantages in entering the field of photovoltaic glass, including low energy consumption, low amortization and high yield of large kilns; The advantages of centralized purchase brought by raw material procurement collaboration; Strong resource capacity of ultra white silica sand. The company’s first breakthrough in photovoltaic float technology is a landmark achievement of its research institute system, which makes us more confident that it is expected to reach the industry-leading level in the manufacturing process of photovoltaic calendered glass. With the gradual implementation of production capacity, it can be expected to become the first echelon of the industry.
The scale of energy-saving glass is growing rapidly, which is in line with the general trend of building energy conservation and carbon reduction: at present, the company has six energy-saving building glass bases in Guangdong, Hunan, Zhejiang, Tianjin and Malaysia. In 2021, the company sold 32.6 million square meters of energy-saving glass, an increase of 48.81% at the same time; The operating income was 2.032 billion yuan, an increase of 83.16% at the same time; The gross profit margin was 42.02%, an increase of 8.83pct. Under the background of “double carbon”, it is imperative to save energy and reduce consumption of buildings. Energy saving glass is superior to ordinary glass in thermal insulation and heat insulation, so as to effectively reduce energy consumption and emission in the operation stage of buildings. The company is expected to benefit from the new development opportunity of green building transformation in the future.
Medical glass and electronic glass are advancing steadily, and the construction of phase II shows confidence: at present, the process stability and production stability of the company’s electronic glass are significantly improved, and the market share and brand effect are gradually improved; Phase I production line of neutral borosilicate medicinal glass project was completed and put into commercial operation in October 2021. Some products have been mass produced and sold. The two business segments are rapidly promoting the construction of phase II projects, and the operation of their main operators in 2021 is as follows: Fujian Qibin pharmaceutical materials technology Co., Ltd. has realized an operating revenue of 4.14 million yuan and a net profit of – 25.83 million yuan; Liling Qibin Electronic Glass Co., Ltd. achieved an operating revenue of 154 million yuan and a net profit of – 19.15 million yuan.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: at present, the direction of real estate easing policy is clear, “Guaranteed delivery” “As required, the risks of uncompleted and delayed delivery have been significantly reduced. We believe that when the epidemic situation is alleviated and the effectiveness of policy transmission is brought into play, the demand for glass will show strong toughness and flexibility. On the whole, the subsequent float glass industry is still expected to return to high prosperity. We continue to firmly recommend Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , which is not only the catalyst of the expected rise in glass prices, but also the long-term growth attribute of enterprises, especially the predictable photovoltaic field expand. The company is building and planning 12 photovoltaic glass production lines. If the single line operation quality put into operation in 22 years proves to be the leader in the standard industry, it is expected to gradually rank among the first echelon of the industry in the future. In addition, the company continues to expand its business in energy conservation, electronics, medical glass and other aspects. The above fields are growth tracks. We maintained the company’s EPS of 1.59 and 1.61 yuan for 22-23 years, and 1.76 yuan for 24 years, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the recovery of float glass price is less than expected, the cost pressure of raw and fuel materials increases, the promotion of new projects is less than expected, and the expansion of new business is less than expected.
