\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 58 Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) )
Core view
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 2.246 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 20.08%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 383 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.83%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 346 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.51%.
Comments:
The performance of the whole year increased steadily, and the volume of ensatinib was large. The sales volume of core product ektinib reached 1909400 boxes, with annual sales of more than 1 billion yuan for six consecutive years, and continued to maintain a double-digit growth; Ensatinib achieved a revenue of 150 million yuan in the whole year and became a new growth point of the company's performance. The brilliant performance of the two flagship products is the main boost to the company's revenue growth in 21 years. It is expected that in 22 years, with the advantages of differentiation and excellent drug quality, it will be able to consolidate the existing share and further open the market space. The apparent net profit decreased year-on-year, mainly due to: 1) the investment income generated by the company's sale of the equity of Zhejiang Beida Pharmaceutical Technology Co., Ltd. (293 million yuan) in 2020 led to a large base in 2020; 2) In 21 years, due to the large R & D expenditure of pipeline promotion, 3) management expenses - share based payment increased significantly to 76 million yuan (+ 138%). Excluding the above factors, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 increased by more than double digits year-on-year.
The medical insurance negotiation is progressing smoothly, and the pipeline under research is gradually entering the harvest period. At the end of 2021, the indications of postoperative adjuvant therapy of ecktinib and ensatinib entered the medical insurance catalogue. Ecktinib filled the gap of oral targeted drugs for postoperative treatment of non-small cell lung cancer in the medical insurance catalogue. Ensatinib has also become the first national innovative new drug included in the national medical insurance in the ALK field. The first-line indications were also approved in March this year, which is expected to continue to bring stable sales growth to the company. The macromolecular new drug betaine was successfully listed and approved a number of new indications in March this year, further enriching the macromolecular pipeline of the company. Voronib (CM082) and bevotinib have also submitted drug registration applications, which are expected to contribute revenue this year, and the company's brand construction and resource integration continue to deepen.
The R & D pipeline focuses on the differentiated layout of lung cancer and other tumors, and the R & D investment continues to increase. The 21-year R & D cost of the company is 566 million yuan (+ 55.97%). Since the beginning of 2021, one overseas clinic of the company has been approved by FDA (bpi-361175) and 11 candidate drugs / indications ind (bpi-23314, bpi-361175, bpi-21668, bpi-421286, batilizumab alone and combined with zefrizumab, bpi-16350, bpi-371153, bpi-442096 and indications for postoperative adjuvant therapy of ensatinib). The company's research projects are advancing smoothly and will enter the harvest period in the next few years. Driven by innovation, the company is expected to form platform effect and scale effect by virtue of its multi-level layout advantages, and the growth trend is worth looking forward to.
Profit forecast: Based on the impact of the epidemic on R & D and sales, we adjusted the previous forecast for 20222023 and increased the forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 20222024 will be 3.11/4.05/5.3 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 38.3% / 30.4% / 30.9% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.1/6.1/700 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 33.7% / + 19.7% / + 14.5% respectively. The current closing price corresponding to PE is 44 / 37 / 32 times respectively. The expansion of new indications of the company's core product ektinib has achieved stable growth. Ensatinib has begun to increase in large quantities and is expected to further open up the growth space after entering medical insurance. Bevacizumab, voronib and bevotinib are expected to contribute to the increment this year. At the same time, the company's research pipeline focuses on various aspects of the tumor field and maintains the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: risk of R & D failure, product sales falling short of expectations, centralized purchase or medical insurance negotiation price reduction exceeding expectations.
