\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Event: on April 7, the company released the sales volume in March. This month, the company sold 227500 vehicles, with a month on month increase of 58.56% and a year-on-year increase of 30.66%.
The smooth expansion of production and delivery accelerated, and the sales volume of ai'an exceeded 20000 for the first time. In March, the wholesale sales volume of ea'an was 20317 vehicles, with a month on month increase of 138.29% and a year-on-year increase of 189.70%. According to the company's official wechat, the demand for the main model aiony was strong, the monthly orders continued to exceed 10000, and 9501 vehicles were delivered in March, with a month on month increase of 218.18%. We believe that the reason for the bright sales in March is mainly due to the smooth expansion of production and supply guarantee of ai'an. According to the company's official wechat, under the background of car core shortage in 2021, the peak capacity utilization rate of ai'an once exceeded 160%, the supply is obviously insufficient, and there are still a large number of undelivered orders at the end of the year; In February 2022, ai'an successfully completed the phase II capacity expansion of intelligent ecological factory, doubling the capacity to 200000 vehicles, so as to ensure that the production and sales of ai'an exceeded 20000 vehicles in March. From the end of 2021 to 2022, ea'an expects a number of new cars to be listed or delivered. 1) according to the company's official wechat, on November 1, 2021, 2022 aiony was listed, with orders breaking thousands on the first day and "blind orders" breaking 10000 for two consecutive months; 2) On January 1, 2022, the 2022 aionsplus with upgraded appearance and configuration was launched; 3) On January 5, 2022, aionlxplus was officially launched. The new car is equipped with three lidars and sponge silicon negative electrode batteries. The mileage will reach 1008km, and the product power of the new car will be greatly improved; 4) Aiony zhonggai, aionv seven seat version, aions lithium iron phosphate version and aionvplus6c version are expected to be listed successively in 2022.
In March, GAC motor's sales volume stabilized and rebounded. In March, GAC motor achieved a wholesale sales volume of 30091 vehicles, up 26.47% and 15.08% month on month and year on year respectively, of which 12374 were sold for the best-selling model GS4, up 21.76% and 41.68% month on month and year on year respectively. According to the official wechat of the company, by the end of 2021, GAC motor had nearly 50000 undelivered orders, mainly focusing on models such as M8, Yingbao and gs8. Due to the lack of core and the Spring Festival holiday, the delivery performance of models from January to February was average. Therefore, we expect that with the gradual relief of subsequent core shortage, the gradual release of orders and the listing (or delivery) of new models such as second-generation gs8, M8 hybrid version and shadow leopard hybrid version, the sales volume of GAC motor is expected to continue to grow.
Liangtian performed well, and Guangfeng's sales volume reached another 100000. In March, Guangfeng sold 97006 vehicles in batches, up 93.62% month on month and 41.00% year on year respectively, and the sales volume was close to 100000 vehicles again. According to the company's official wechat, the sales of the main models leiling, Camry, willanda and Highlander were 20032, 27211, 14344 and 7622 respectively, of which leiling continued to lead China's compact car market. The year-on-year growth rates of Camry, willanda and Highlander were 78.87%, 39.17% and 8.47% respectively; According to the company's official wechat, the sales volume of xinsaina continued to rise, with 6319 vehicles sold in March, ranking the top of China's high-end MPV; According to the company's official wechat, the new VESA was listed on the store from March 26 to 27. In the first batch of orders, the proportion of dual engine and top equipped 4WD was as high as 53% and 47% respectively, and the high-end continued. In March, guangben sold 76833 vehicles, up 34.55% month on month and 21.46% year on year, of which accord, Binzhi and haoying sold 20667, 16623 and 12481 vehicles respectively this month. On March 29, guangben officially released the new electric brand e: NP and unveiled its first product e: NP1. The company plans to launch new cars at the pace of one model per year by 2025 to promote the electrification process of Honda.
New product cycle + continuous production expansion + price increase in ea'an + mixed reform in ea'an, and the performance in 2022 can be expected. In terms of new products: according to the company's official wechat and announcement, aionlxplus, aiony middle modified version and aionvplus6c version of ai'an; GAC motor's second-generation gs8 and GS4 brother cars, M8 hybrid version and shadow leopard hybrid version; Hiromoto's style, new SUV and Electric Vehicle E: NP1; Guangfeng Saina, fenglanda, Weisa and pure electric vehicle bz4x; Guangzhou Mitsubishi's pure electric vehicle atuko; The above models are expected to be intensively listed (or delivered), which is expected to contribute to significant sales increment. Capacity: according to the company's announcement, the capacity under construction of ea'an, guangben and Guangfeng is 200000, 120000 and 200000 respectively, which are expected to be put into operation in 2022, 2024 and 2022 respectively. Price increase of aion: 1) according to the official wechat of the company, the price of aionlx increased by 4000 yuan at the end of 2021, and the new aionsplus increased by more than 7000 yuan compared with 2021; 2) In order to cope with the impact of the sharp rise in raw material prices and the decline of new energy subsidies, the prices of many models of ai'an have increased by 4 Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) 00 yuan since March 4. Ai'an mixed reform: according to the announcement, at present, ai'an has completed employee equity incentive and introduced strategic investors. The follow-up company will timely start the a-round war and joint-stock system reform, and choose the opportunity to go public.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, gac-e'an's sales volume is expected to continue to grow, gac-motor is expected to continue to reduce losses, and the listing of heavy-duty models of joint venture brands is expected to bring significant performance flexibility to GAC. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 9.81 billion, RMB 13.60 billion and RMB 17.74 billion respectively, corresponding to the current market value, PE will be 11.8, 8.5 and 6.5 times respectively, maintain the "Buy-A" rating, and the six-month target price will be RMB 17.90/share.
Risk tip: the shortage of chips in the automotive industry is increasing; Risk that the independent sales volume is lower than expected; The risk of the epidemic getting out of control.
