\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 88 Citic Press Corporation(300788) )
Core view
Affected by the industry downturn and price war, the company's short-term performance is under pressure. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 1.922 billion, an increase of 1.6% and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 242 million, a decrease of 14.35%, of which 21q4 achieved a total operating revenue of 518 million, a decrease of 16.49% and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 40.25 million, a decrease of 60.4%. In 2021, the company plans to distribute cash dividends of RMB 5.08 (including tax) to all shareholders for every 10 shares. The company's short-term performance is under pressure. On the one hand, the book publishing industry continues to decline and has not yet recovered to the 19-year level; On the other hand, the discount of short video e-commerce is very low, squeezing the profit space of publishing institutions. In view of the disorderly competition in the industry, if relevant laws and regulations are issued, it can effectively improve the current profit dilemma of the publishing industry.
To maintain the leading position in the industry and counter the trend of children's growth, it is proposed to establish "CITIC children's culture group". The company still ranks first in the mass publishing market, and the market share of economic and management books continues to lead the market; Popular science keeps the first place in the market; Biography rose to second place; Compared with last year, the art category increased by six places and ranked sixth; Among them, children's class grew against the trend, and its market share continued to increase to 3.75%, ranking one to third year-on-year. In 2022, the company will establish "CITIC children's culture group" and focus on building a children's growth service system based on CITIC children's book.
Offline bookstores turn losses into profits, focus on digital transformation and upgrading online, and try to explore new business forms. 1) In 2021, CITIC Bookstore turned losses into profits. The scale of airport stores ranks first, with an annual passenger flow of 446 million. Business stores have established mature models and competitive advantages. 2) The company actively responded to the external challenges of channel migration and intensified online competition, and quickly established a self broadcasting matrix of books. The self operated income of books accounted for 45% and the cumulative number of service users reached 20.5 million; CITIC college plans to develop columns such as big coffee reading, video reading, live reading club and podcast radio. In 2022, the company will integrate resources such as CITIC bookstore and CITIC academy, build a membership knowledge service system and build a "CITIC knowledge service group". 3) The company will build a Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) integrated financial publishing system to explore a new economic model. The company will launch the "2022 Citic Press Corporation(300788) yuan universe design competition" and launch CITIC classic series NFT products.
Risk tip: the publishing industry continues to decline; Live e-commerce price war disturbs market order; New business exploration was less than expected.
Investment suggestion: under the background of continuous decline of the industry, the company has strong anti risk ability. The company's performance has not declined significantly, and children's class has increased against the trend, and physical bookstores have turned losses into profits; Online channels in the context of the price war of new e-commerce channels, the company actively explores new business forms and suggests to actively pay attention to the introduction of relevant laws and regulations regulating the order of the industry, which is expected to improve the industry. Considering that the decline of the publishing industry and the disorderly competition in online channels have a certain suppression on the profit side of the company, we lowered the profit of 22-23 years by 29.67% / 31.92% to 273 / 308 million, increased the profit forecast of 343 million in 2024, and estimated that the EPS in 22-24 years is 1.44/1.62/1.81 yuan, corresponding to PE of 17 / 15 / 13X, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
