\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 615 Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) )
Performance review
The company released the performance pre increase report for the first quarter of 2022. 1q22 is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.3-1.55 billion yuan, an increase of 408.02% – 505.72% at the same time; 1q22 is expected to realize a net profit of RMB 1.29-1.54 billion after deducting non parent company, with a same increase of 440.93% – 545.76%, which is higher than expected.
Business analysis
It is estimated that the annual gross profit margin will remain at about 20% in 2022. According to the company’s guidelines, it is estimated that the company’s wind turbine shipment in 2022 will be 8GW, an increase of 33% (the company’s wind turbine shipment guidelines in 2021 will be 6Gw), of which the sea / land wind shipments are 3 / 5GW respectively. 1q22 company’s gross profit margin remains stable and is expected to remain at 20% for the whole year.
It is proposed to be listed on the London Stock Exchange and develop overseas business. In April, the company passed the proposal on the company issuing GDR, listing on the London Stock Exchange and turning into an overseas offering company limited by shares, and planned to be listed on the London Stock Exchange. The raised funds are intended to build the company’s scenery hydrogen storage matrix high-end equipment manufacturing system, promote the company’s international layout and supplement working capital.
The company is the leader of megawatt sea breeze, and the proportion of sea listing continues to increase. The company is the pioneer of large-scale wind turbines in China, with many advantages, such as fast product renewal, low cost, high power generation, good technical route and so on. In terms of mass production models, the company has formed 5.5MW, 6.45mw, 7.25mw and 8.5mw The product pedigree of offshore wind turbine dominated by xmw, 11mw and other products. The proportion of sales capacity of the company’s sea breeze products increased rapidly. In 2019, the proportion of sales capacity of the company’s land breeze and sea breeze products was 85% and 15% respectively, and that of 1h21 was 51% and 49%. According to our calculation, the company’s share of China’s Haifeng market is about 19% in 2019 and about 35% in 2021.
Profit adjustment and investment suggestions
It is estimated that the net profit of the company in 2021 will be 3.3 billion yuan. Due to the better than expected Q1 performance, we raised the profit forecast for 20222023 to 3.7 billion yuan (+ 7%) and 4.7 billion yuan (+ 6%), with a year-on-year increase of 141%, 13% and 25% respectively, corresponding to eps1 70 yuan, 1.91 yuan, 2.40 yuan. The current share price of the company corresponds to 15.4, 13.6 and 10.9 times of PE in the three years, respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk
Policy risk, market competition risk, restricted shares lifting risk, major shareholder reduction risk
