\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 499 Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) )
Event: on April 7, 2022, the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company’s revenue was 2.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 63%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 210 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 51%.
Key investment points
The large volume of special aircraft increased the performance in 2021, and the power lithium battery equipment contributed to the performance growth in 2022: the company’s revenue in 2021 was 2.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 63%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 210 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 51%; After excluding the impact of share based payment expenses, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 216 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 54%; Net profit attributable to parent company + 64% on year-on-year basis. The high growth of revenue and profit in 2021 mainly benefited from the formation of the whole line delivery capacity of the front, middle and back channels and the realization of mass production and sales of special aircraft. In 2021, the company’s newly signed orders and bid winning notice were about 7 billion yuan (including tax). We expect that the orders and bid winning notice of nearly 5 billion yuan of power lithium battery. In 2022, with the gradual recognition of revenue from power lithium battery equipment orders, the company’s performance growth is highly uncertain.
The gross profit margin in 2021 was slightly higher than that in 2021, with a slight increase in the gross profit margin of 0.84t 1 year on year; The net profit margin on sales was 9.1%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.7pct. During 2021, the expense rate was 31%, year-on-year + 1.4pct, of which the sales expense rate was 5.3%, year-on-year -0.3pct; The management expense ratio (including R & D) was 24.9%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.3pct, mainly due to the expansion of the company’s scale & increasing R & D investment; The financial expense ratio was 0.8%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.7pct.
Contract liabilities & inventories increased rapidly, and the growth of short-term performance was highly deterministic: by the end of 2021, the company’s contract liabilities were 1.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 110%; The inventory was 1.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 63%, indicating that the company has sufficient orders and strong certainty of short-term performance growth. In 2021, the company’s newly signed orders and notification of winning the bid are about 7 billion yuan (including tax). We expect that the company’s newly signed orders will be 10 billion yuan in 2022. The structure is dominated by power, and the proportion of overseas orders will increase (overseas orders will account for about 20% in 2021, and we expect that overseas orders will account for 30-40% in 2022). The profitability of orders is expected to be further improved, and we expect that the gross profit margin of orders in 2022 is expected to reach more than 40%.
The performance in 2021 reached the revenue target of equity incentive, which was slightly lower than the net profit target: in the equity incentive plan of the company in 2021, the operating revenue in 2021 was not less than 2.2 billion yuan (actually 2.33 billion yuan) or the net profit attributable to the parent after excluding the impact of share based payment expenses was not less than 220 million yuan (actually 216 million yuan). The performance in 2021 reached the revenue target of equity incentive, which was slightly lower than the net profit target. According to the equity incentive plan, the net interest rate of the company excluding the impact of share based payment expenses from 2022 to 2023 is 13% / 15%. We believe that Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) net interest rate will continue to increase, mainly for four reasons:
1) since 2020q4, the power battery plant has entered the peak of production expansion, and the voice of Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) and other leading equipment manufacturers has been further improved; 2) The acceleration of downstream production expansion requires higher delivery capacity of equipment manufacturers, and only large-scale manufacturers can better meet the delivery time requirements; 3) The scale effect brings down the cost rate; 4) Overseas customer expansion is in progress.
Profit forecast and investment rating: benefiting from the high outlook of the industry and sufficient orders of the company, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 4.8/8.1/1.35 billion yuan, corresponding to 32 / 19 / 11 times of the current share price PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the growth rate of lithium battery industry slows down or declines, and the competition pattern worsens.
