\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Event overview: on April 7, 2022, the company released production and sales data. In Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) 3 months, the sales volume of cars was 227500, with a year-on-year increase of + 30.66% / month on month increase of + 58.56%. The cumulative sales volume from January to march was 608200, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 22.48%.
The strength of independent products has been recognized by the market, and the sales volume of subsequent heavy-duty models has increased. In March, GAC motor sold 30100 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.08% / month on month increase of + 26.47%. From January to March, it sold 90400 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 21.80%. In terms of models, the sales volume of GS4 was 12400, with a month on month increase of + 21.76%, breaking 10000 for three consecutive months, and the sales volume further increased; The new gs8 of 21m12 has been on the market for more than 25000 orders in two months, and the product power of the model continues to be recognized by the market. This year, emkoo, upgraded M8, shadow leopard hybrid and other models are expected to be launched one after another, increasing GAC motor sales. Ai'an sold 20300 vehicles in March, with a year-on-year increase of + 189.70% / month on month increase of + 138.29%, of which aiony's single month order exceeded 10000 and delivered 9500 units, ranking the top in the sales of class a pure electric SUVs; From January to March, the cumulative sales volume was 44900 vehicles, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 154.85%, continuing to lead the "new forces". With the rapid iteration of products and the capacity expansion, we expect the sales volume of ea'an to double to 250000 vehicles in 2022.
Liangtian maintained double-digit high growth, and Guangfeng new car performed well. In March, guangben sold 76800 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 21.46% / month on month increase of + 34.55%, of which accord / haoying / Binzhi contributed 2.07/1.25/1.6610000 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 22.36% / - 29.54% / 1.35%; From January to March, the cumulative sales volume was 212400, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 16.75%. The sales volume of new cars sold by Meifeng / Kailan was up to 72.00% year-on-year, that is, the sales volume of new cars sold by Meifeng / Kailan was up to 87.00% year-on-year, that is, the sales volume of new cars sold by Meifeng / Kailan was up to 0.87% year-on-year; From January to March, the cumulative sales volume was 247000, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 23.44%. In 2022, Liangtian accelerated its expansion. In terms of production capacity, GAC Toyota new energy vehicle production capacity expansion project phase I and GAC Toyota engine construction project were completed on schedule, and GAC Toyota new energy vehicle production capacity expansion project phase II (200000 vehicles / year) was steadily promoted. In terms of model launch, the strong cycle of Liangtian products has been opened. Guangben's first Honda brand pure electric e: NP1 and Guangfeng pure electric suvbz4x will be listed successively this year. The electric fuel has the same power, which is expected to further drive the sales upward.
Electric intelligence is accelerated, and the mixed reform is expected to boost the company's valuation. In terms of electrification, ai'an has achieved independent and controllable core technologies in the field of "three electricity", such as sponge silicon cathode, overcharge and magazine battery safety technology; In March, the company invested in the trial production of eco energy and energy storage lines and accelerated the opening of eco energy storage lines; In terms of intelligence, ai'an has maintained a leading edge in intelligent driving and intelligent network technology, and the assembly volume of L2 level and L2 + level auxiliary driving vehicles has reached more than 50%. Ai'an implemented equity incentive and introduced war investment in March, and plans to start a round of financing and joint-stock restructuring in the third quarter, and then actively seek an appropriate time to go public. This ai'an mixed reform is expected to reconstruct the company's valuation system and boost the company's valuation level.
Investment suggestion: the company grasps the opportunity of the rise of the new energy market and takes multiple measures in technology and system. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 9.579/10.875/12.627 billion respectively, corresponding to 12 / 11 / 9 times of the current share price PE respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates, the supply of chips is less than expected, and the recovery of passenger car market is less than expected.
