\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 13 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) )
Event: the company launched a number of high-quality film and television works in 2022q1. The TV variety "Hello Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) " was launched on January 1, 2022, and the online variety "detective 7" was launched on January 28, 2022; The TV series Shangshi was launched on February 22, 2022.
In terms of TV variety, "Hello Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) " generally outperformed the previous fast Book performance. "Hello Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) " is currently broadcast in 12 issues, with an average first day broadcast volume of 5.33 million, which is slightly lower than the average first day broadcast volume of the first 12 issues of fast books broadcast in 2021 (5.94 million); However, the next day's broadcast volume of "Hello Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) " was 37.75 million and that of "happy camp" was 29.2 million, which increased significantly.
In terms of online entertainment, "detective 7" tops the list, and "our hot life" performs well. "Big detective 7" has been online since January 28, 2022. As of April 7, 2022, it has been online for 69 days, with a cumulative broadcast volume of 2.02 billion and a Douban score of 7.5. According to the data of Yien, in 2022q1, detective 7 ranks first in terms of broadcast index and quarterly broadcast volume. According to the broadcast index, compared with the other network ensemble of the same period, second half lovers (1 billion 210 million) were broadcast by Tencent, and third were "twist flowers" broadcast by Youku. Compared with the fifth and sixth seasons of Ming investigation, the first day broadcast volume of "big detective 7" is the same as that in the early stage, and the first week broadcast volume is slightly lower than that in the early stage. At present, the average first day broadcast volume of the first six episodes (the upper and lower episodes together) is 170 million, and the average first six episodes in the fifth and sixth quarters are 100 million and 170 million respectively (single episode in the fifth quarter and double episodes in the sixth and seventh quarters); However, the first week's broadcast volume was less than that of the previous two seasons. The first week's broadcast volume of the seventh quarter was 290 million, and that of the fifth and sixth quarters was 320 million and 340 million. Considering that only mango TV members can watch on the first day of broadcasting, we think the reason for this phenomenon may be the increase in the member payment rate of mango IP fans. In addition, "our hot life" was launched on December 20, 2021. As of April 7, 2022, it has played 2.67 billion times.
In terms of TV series, mango T V "Shangshi" ranked fourth in the broadcasting index. Shangshi was launched on February 22, 2022, with a total of 44 online days and a total of 2.26 billion broadcasts. Together with Tencent video's more advice for the rest of life, iqiyi's human world and xinju, it ranked in the top four in the series broadcasting index of the same period. As an attempt of a new series, the achievements of Shangshi once again show mango's excellent content R & D ability.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.13 yuan, 1.25 yuan and 1.43 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 28 times, 25 times and 2 times. Considering that the company has rich product lines in 2022, the negative impact of stable macroeconomic growth on advertising business gradually subsides, and Xiaomang e-commerce is on the right track, we maintain the investment rating of Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) "buy".
Risk warning: the risk that the product effect is not as good as expected and the risk of national policy adjustment.
