\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 677 Zhejiang Meida Industrial Co.Ltd(002677) )
Q4 performance was in line with expectations. Under the influence of raw materials, the net interest rate was under periodic pressure, and the “buy” rating was maintained
In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 2.164 billion (+ 22.19%) and net profit attributable to parent company of 665 million (+ 22.28%); In 2021q4 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 630 million (+ 6.00%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 214 million (+ 2.63%), and the performance was in line with expectations. Considering the sharp rise in raw material prices and the pressure on the net profit margin, we lowered the profit forecast for 20222023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be RMB 788 / 910 / 1035 million (the original value of RMB 819 / 964 million in 20222023), the corresponding EPS will be RMB 1.22/1.41/1.60 (the original value of RMB 127 / 149 million in 20222023), and the current share price will be 11.7 / 10.1 / 8.9 times that of PE. Considering the phased impact of the rise in raw materials, The expansion of diversified marketing channels was accelerated and the “buy” rating remained unchanged.
The diversified development of offline channels is smooth, online sales continue to be hot, and the double brand system of Meida tianniu continues to be promoted
(1) dealer channels: more than 300 / 380 primary dealers / terminal stores will be added in 2021, with a total of more than 1900 / 3800. (2) E-commerce channels: increase marketing investment and online special-purpose products, and double the growth of business. According to Aowei data, the online sales volume of integrated stoves of 2022w1-w13 company reached 61 million (+ 114.8%), and the hot sales trend continued. (3) Ka channels: in 2021, more than 330 / 195 / 320 outlets of home appliances / building materials / sinking channels were added, and the cumulative number of Ka stores of home appliances / building materials exceeded 2500. (4) Engineering, home decoration and community channels: more than 10 hardbound projects have been implemented and installed with a number of real estate enterprises in 2021; In depth cooperation with Yezhifeng and other well-known home decoration companies; More than 80 community stores have been opened, with diversified channels and smooth expansion. (5) Dual brand operation: the official flagship store of tmall, the brand of tianniu, was newly opened and named as the special high-speed rail train to help enhance its popularity. In 2021, 68 / 55 first-class dealers / terminal stores were added to the brand of tianniu, with a total of 300 / 150, which is expected to contribute to new performance growth points.
Affected by the sharp rise in raw materials, the gross profit margin is under pressure, and the net profit margin is expected to remain stable under the improvement of the superposition structure of efficiency improvement and cost control
In 2021, the gross profit margin was 51.7% (- 1.1pct), of which the gross profit margin of integrated stove was 54.1% (- 2.4pct) and that of 2021q4 was 50.8% (- 4.6pct). Under the trend of improving the product structure, the gross profit margin was mainly affected by the sharp rise of raw materials, and the amount of direct materials of integrated stove in 2021 was + 35.9%. The company has achieved remarkable results in improving efficiency and controlling expenses, and the sales / management expense ratio in 2021q4 is -1.07 / -0.03pct respectively. In 2021, the net interest rate is 30.72% (+ 0.02pct), and in 2021q4, the net interest rate is 33.94% (- 1.12pct). Under the trend of improving the product structure, we expect the net interest rate to remain stable.
Risk warning: real estate market fluctuation risk; Rising risk of raw materials; Market competition intensifies risks.
