\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 949 Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) )
The provision for impairment is sufficient and optimistic about the medium and long-term growth
Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) 21fy achieved revenue of 2.88 billion yuan, yoy + 52%, net profit attributable to parent company of 105 million yuan, yoy-39%, deduction of non performance of 76 million yuan, yoy-53%. The impairment loss in 21 years was 158 million yuan, an increase of 113 million yuan over 20 years, which was mainly due to the provision for bad debts of assets receivable from real estate customers such as Evergrande (the provision proportion reached 80% - 100%). Under the adverse circumstances, the operating cash flow of 21fy still flowed in 238 million yuan, with a year-on-year improvement. We believe that the human efficiency improvement of the company's design business is still being realized, and BIM software is expected to accelerate the pace of commercialization after cooperation with Zhongwang.
Human efficiency continues to improve and orders are full on hand
In terms of splitting, the revenue of architectural design / engineering contracting / cost consulting was 1.54/10.9/230 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 25% / + 137% / + 34%. Newly signed design contracts amounted to 2.44 billion yuan (1.6 times of revenue), a year-on-year increase of + 5.1%, of which 1.09 billion yuan (1.9 times of revenue) was assembled design, a year-on-year increase of + 17.9%; The newly signed contract of cost consulting is 450 million (2.0 times of revenue), with a year-on-year increase of + 27.3%. The orders on hand are relatively full. It is expected that the company's design / cost business is still expected to maintain a good growth in 22 years. The general contracting business has been affected by large orders in 21 years, with high income, and the income is expected to decrease in 22 years.
The expense rate decreased significantly, and the cash collection ratio improved year-on-year
The gross profit margin of 21fy is 20.9%, and the gross profit margin of architectural design / engineering contracting is 31.8% / 2.68%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.6pct / - 2.2pct. We expect that the gross profit margin in 22 years is expected to return to the trend of improvement. The rate of sales / management / Finance / R & D expenses changed by -0.15 / - 1.09 / - 0.47 / + 0.20pct year-on-year, and the expense rate decreased significantly, which is related to the increase of engineering contracting business and raising the denominator. 21 years cfo2 3.8 billion yuan, 22 million yuan less than 20 years. Cash to cash ratio 101%, year-on-year + 3PCT.
Optimistic about medium and long-term growth and maintain the "buy" rating
In the past 21 years, the company's self-developed design software continued to iterate, developed and launched ibim4 0 and Huayang quick build 2022 have built a full professional BIM forward design capability, and the control granularity has reached the parameter level. At present, the company's Chengke subsidiary has more than 130 employees, and the follow-up is expected to realize the whole process software development of design cost construction. At the beginning of the 22nd year, the company announced strategic cooperation with Zhongwang to jointly develop BIM software. The subsequent software commercialization is expected to create the second growth curve of the company. It is estimated that the performance of 22-24 years will be RMB 250 / 3.1 / 380 million, corresponding to pe1.2 billion 0 / 9.7 / 7.9 times. The new business is expected to bring significant valuation improvement. It is given a 22-year 24 times PE, corresponding to the target price of 30.8 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the volume and execution of orders are not as expected; The new construction area of real estate is less than expected; The impact of EPC on cash flow is higher than expected; Risks of changes in macro environment and industrial policies; The risk of intensified market competition.
