\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 677 Zhejiang Meida Industrial Co.Ltd(002677) )
Event: the company achieved an operating revenue of RMB 2.164 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 22.19%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 665 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.28%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 635 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.21%. Among them, 2021q4 achieved an operating revenue of 630 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.00%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 214 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.63%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 197 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 5.15%. The company plans to distribute cash dividends of RMB 6.60 (including tax) for every 10 shares to all shareholders based on 646 million shares, with a total of RMB 426 million.
The operation was stable throughout the year, and the growth rate of Q4 revenue performance slowed down. Due to the weak growth of the real estate industry and Q4 market, the company’s sales growth is slightly lower than the expected growth of the real estate industry, while the revenue is subject to the continuation of Q4 market. From the perspective of different channels, 1) in 2021, the company’s previously relatively weak online business doubled, contributing a large growth momentum to the company as a whole. With reference to Aowei cloud, the market share of Meida integrated stove in e-commerce platform increased to 8.23% in 21 years. During the “double 11” period, the sales of the whole network exceeded 250 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 425%. 2) The company has accelerated the development of distribution channels and continuously encrypted the terminal network, but the growth rate is lower than that of online business. In 2021, the company added 300 + primary dealers (113 in the 20th annual report) and 380 terminal stores (285 in the 20th annual report). The increasingly solid offline distribution strength provides a solid foundation for the subsequent business development. 3) The positive layout of Ka, home decoration and engineering channels has injected vitality into the growth of the company. By the end of 21, Midea had opened 2500 + home appliance Ka and building materials stores, and reached cooperation with Yezhifeng, Xingyi and other well-known home decoration companies and more than 10 real estate companies. At present, the growth rate of diversified channel business is high, but the proportion is relatively limited. We believe that the company is expected to continue to expand its brand influence by virtue of its first mover advantage in store layout, and the subsequent development and improvement of e-commerce, Ka, home decoration and other channels will be an important source of revenue growth. By product, in 2021, the company’s integrated stove / cabinet business achieved revenue of 1.97 billion yuan / 0.6 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 24.9% / + 35.7% respectively, compared with + 30.3% / + 5.7% in 19 years. Under the rapid penetration of the industry, the company’s integrated stove sales have a great growth momentum, and further increase its contribution to the company’s overall revenue generating ability.
Q4 raw material pressure shows that the gross profit margin is under pressure and the annual profitability is strong. The company’s annual gross profit margin showed a trend from high to low. To 21q4, the gross profit margin decreased by 4.61pct to 50.79% year-on-year, which is expected to be mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials such as stainless steel sectors. The cost side pressure is also transmitted to the net interest rate. The net interest rate of 21q4 is 33.9%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.12pct. Throughout the year, the company still maintained a high profitability under the pressure of raw material price rise in 21 years, and the annual gross profit margin reached 51.69%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.08pct; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company reached 30.7%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.02pct. We believe that behind the contrarian improvement of the company’s net interest rate, in addition to the appearance of scale effect and actively tapping the potential to reduce costs, the investment income of more than 32 million yuan also increased the current profit.
Actively build the advantages of omni-channel sales network, which is expected to benefit from the prosperity of the industry and achieve medium and long-term growth. According to the calculation of Aowei cloud network, the proportion of integrated stove product sales in the overall smoke stove market sales has increased rapidly, the category penetration rate has increased from less than 2% in 2015 to 14.1% in 2021, and the market scale will continue to grow steadily. In the context of market expansion, the company seized the opportunity to establish a nationwide marketing network and service system, with more than 1900 first-class dealers (regional dealers) and more than 3800 marketing terminals. The sub brand tianniu brand has signed 300 dealers and opened 150 stores. The company’s dual brand offline distribution strength is strong. In the future, it is expected to help the company achieve medium and long-term steady growth through channel expansion and store efficiency improvement.
Investment suggestion: from September 2021, a series of marginal easing signals such as the reduction of mortgage interest rate and down payment ratio have emerged in the real estate policy, which will directly benefit the rapid development of the integrated stove industry. As the pioneer and leading brand of the integrated stove industry, Meida actively promotes its own product R & D and channel expansion, and is expected to take the east wind of the industry to achieve medium and long-term growth. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years is RMB 765 / 880 / 1011 million (the value was RMB 788 / 924 million 22-23 years ago), and the current stock price corresponds to 12.1x/10.5x/9.1xpe in 22-24 years, maintaining the rating of “overweight”.
Risk warning: the risk of rising raw material prices; The risk of fluctuations in the real estate market; The risk of intensified market competition.
