\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 063 Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) )
Event: Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) released the annual report for 2021, with an operating revenue of 2.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 84.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 316 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.19%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 300 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.47%; The basic earnings per share is 2.04 yuan, and 6.2 yuan (including tax) is distributed to all shareholders for every 10 shares. The performance is consistent with the company’s performance express.
21q4 shipments increased month on month, with short-term pressure on profits: 21q4 revenue was 768 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 146% and a month on month increase of + 25%, mainly due to the strong demand for overseas household energy storage, the significant release of the company’s new capacity and the month on month increase of shipments; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 65 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of – 16.7% and a month on month growth of – 32%. The net profit not attributable to the parent company was 59 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of – 22% and a month on month growth of – 37%. The gross profit margin of 21q4 was 23.8%, down 6.37pcts month on month, mainly affected by rising raw material prices, insufficient international shipping capacity, increased logistics costs, RMB appreciation and other factors.
The company’s production capacity has been steadily improved: with the completion and operation of some of the company’s raised investment projects, the production capacity has been greatly released. By the end of 2021, the company has formed an annual capacity of 3gwh power cells and 3.5gwh energy storage system. It is expected that the capacity of energy storage system will reach more than 5gwh by the end of 22. The continuous operation of new capacity provides a driving force for performance growth.
The price increase is expected to transmit the cost pressure and the profit margin is expected to rise: the company’s price increase to the downstream in 22 years is progressing smoothly, which is expected to effectively transmit the price increase pressure of some raw materials. The price of upstream lithium carbonate from Q2 is expected to stabilize, and the profitability of the company is expected to improve quarter by quarter. Downstream customers of the company only Sonnen are OEM customers. With the increasing proportion of independent brands, it will also have a positive effect on the profit margin of the company.
Make breakthroughs in overseas markets and expand China’s industrial and commercial industry and micro network market: according to the company’s annual report and woodmackenzie data, the scale of new energy storage projects put into operation in 2021 will reach 12gw / 28gwh. The company’s overseas market expansion continued, the customers in the Netherlands and Eastern Europe made clear progress, and the US and Japan markets made breakthrough progress; China has achieved commercial use in industrial and commercial energy storage, microgrid energy storage and other markets, and container energy storage system and MWh battery system have achieved sustained large-scale delivery.
Lithium iron phosphate energy storage technology is leading, and the pilot test of sodium electric energy storage products has been completed: lithium iron phosphate battery is the mainstream technical route of energy storage in China, and the overseas penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate energy storage is expected to increase. The company has been deeply engaged in the application field of lithium battery energy storage for more than ten years, focusing on the field of soft encapsulated lithium iron phosphate energy storage. In addition, the company promoted the development of alternative solutions, such as sodium ion battery technology. In 2021, the company developed the first generation of sodium ion battery products and completed a pilot test.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the price of upstream raw materials and shipping costs have increased, the company’s gross profit margin is under pressure in the short term, and considering the impact of equity incentive expenses (the company’s estimated expenses in 22-24 years are 140 / 70 / 33 million yuan, which is actually related to the grant date, grant price and attribution quantity), the net profit forecast in 22-23 years has been reduced (- 20% / – 6%), and the 24-year forecast has been added to 546 / 1098 / 1551 million yuan. The current share price corresponds to PE of 38 / 19 / 13X, The company is expected to benefit from the high prospect of overseas household energy storage, actively expand production, provide growth power and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials and shipping cost rise; Intensified competition in energy storage market; International trade risks.
