Core view
China: the progress of rice is slightly faster than that in the same period in history. It is expected that most of the weather in China will be suitable for spring sowing in the future. According to the agricultural situation dispatching of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, 7.6% of spring sowing grain has been sown, nearly 70% of early rice seedling raising and nearly 20% of planting. As of March 28, 7.6% of the intended area of spring sowing grain has been completed, with a year-on-year progress of 0.3 percentage points. It is expected that from April 2 to 5, most spring sowing areas in China will have sunny weather, the temperature will gradually rise and the moisture content is appropriate. The meteorological conditions are conducive to rice sowing, seedling raising and transplanting, as well as the emergence and growth of sown seedlings of dryland crops such as spring wheat, spring corn and potato. The process of spring tillage and spring sowing will be accelerated. Only the southwest spring sowing area still has intermittent precipitation, which is slightly unfavorable to spring farming, and the meteorological grade of spring farming and spring sowing is sub appropriate.
United States: the planting intention was announced in 2022, with corn decreasing and soybean increasing. USDA released the planting intention report for 2022 on March 31. 1) Corn: the corn planting area in 2022 is estimated to be 89.49 million British acres, a decrease of 4.1% over last year. The planting area of 43 of the 48 estimated states is expected to be reduced or flat. 2) Soybean: in 2022, the soybean planting area will reach 90.955 million acres, a record high, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3%. Compared with last year, the planting area of 24 of the 29 estimated states increased or remained unchanged. 3) Wheat: in 2022, the planting area of all wheat is estimated to be 47.351 million acres, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, of which the planting area of winter wheat is 34.2 million acres, with a year-on-year increase of 2%, but 1% less than the previous estimate; The sown area of spring wheat is estimated to be 11.2 million acres, down 2% from 2021.
Ukraine: the spring sowing process is faster than expected, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine still needs attention. According to Reuters, Taras vysotskiy, Deputy Minister of agriculture of Ukraine, said in a speech that although affected by the war, Ukraine had sowed about 400000 hectares of various spring crops as of March 31, an increase of 10% over the same period last year. In the same period in March, Ukrainian agricultural officials said that the spring sowing crops in 2022 are expected to be reduced to 7 million hectares (15 million hectares in 2021), with a yield reduction of more than 50%. It is expected that the area of Zhejiang Sunflower Great Health Limited Liability Company(300111) , corn will be reduced, but the area of other grains may be increased. Since the outbreak of the conflict, Ukraine has temporarily suspended the export of essential Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) such as rye, oats, sugar and meat, and implemented an export licensing system for the export of wheat, but the export of corn and sunflower oil has not been limited.
Risk tips
Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price fluctuation risk, epidemic risk, policy risk, industry competition and product risk
