Core view
The guidance on energy work in 2022 was issued. In order to continuously promote the high-quality development of energy, the National Energy Administration recently formulated and issued the guiding opinions on energy work in 2022 (hereinafter referred to as the “opinions”). The opinions put forward clear goals for China’s energy development in 2022, focusing on energy supply guarantee, green and low-carbon transformation, power system security and so on.
It is emphasized to continue to strengthen energy supply capacity. As for the energy supply target, the opinions pointed out that in 2022, China’s total energy production will reach about 4.41 billion tons of standard coal, about 200 million tons of crude oil and about 214 billion cubic meters of natural gas, an increase of about 8.4% / 0.5% / 4.2% respectively over the same period in 2021. The installed capacity of electric power reached about 2.6 billion kw, a year-on-year increase of + 9.2% compared with 2021, and the power generation reached about 9.07 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of + 11.8%. The peak power generation capacity will be increased by more than 80 million KW.
It emphasizes accelerating the green and low-carbon transformation of energy. In terms of development objectives, the opinions pointed out that we should steadily promote structural transformation in 2022, steadily reduce the proportion of coal consumption, increase the proportion of non fossil energy in the total energy consumption to about 17.3%, replace about 180 billion kwh of new electric energy, and the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the power consumption of the whole society will reach about 12.2%. In terms of specific development, we should vigorously develop wind power photovoltaic, promote the construction of offshore / offshore wind power bases, actively promote the construction of water scenery complementary bases, and make full use of the land and roof resources of oil and gas mining areas, industrial and mining areas and industrial parks to develop distributed wind power and photovoltaic.
Simultaneously strengthen the consumption guarantee of new energy. The opinion points out that it is necessary to strengthen the planning and construction of a new energy supply and consumption system based on large-scale scenery bases, supported by clean, efficient, advanced and energy-saving coal power around them, and supported by stable, safe and reliable UHV power transmission and transformation lines. In terms of transmission lines, the opinions require that the transmission capacity of “west to East power transmission” should reach about 290 million kW in 2022, and actively promote the planning and construction of transmission channels. Actively promote the planning and construction of inter provincial and inter regional transmission channels in combination with the planning and development of large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases focusing on deserts, Gobi, deserts and other regions and the development situation of power supply and demand.
It is emphasized to strengthen the flexibility and toughness of the energy supply chain and speed up the construction of the regulation capacity of the power system. The access of a high proportion of renewable energy increases the instability of the power system. The regulation ability of the power system is related to the security and stability of the whole power system. The regulation of power system mainly depends on coal power, pumping and storage and demand side response. The Opinions also makes corresponding requirements for the construction of power system regulation capacity.
In the context of energy transformation, the construction and consumption of renewable energy and the transformation of power system will be the long-term main line. Although coal power is facing a major change in its role, it still plays an irreplaceable role in the power system. We maintain the investment rating of “optimistic” in the industry, continue to be optimistic about the three main investment lines of large hydropower, scenery operators and clean energy transformation, and suggest paying attention to power operators with good cash flow. Recommend Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) , Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co.Ltd(600674) , China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) electric power, Datang new energy and other companies.
Risk warning: the decline of coal price is less than expected; The rise of electricity price is less than expected; The construction and consumption of new energy are less than expected;
