Key investment points
Port data in late March
(1) overall: cargo throughput of major coastal hub ports: year-on-year + 7.7%, including foreign trade throughput + 9.2%
In late March, the cargo throughput of major coastal hub ports was + 7.7% year-on-year; Among them, the foreign trade throughput was + 9.2% year-on-year, an increase of 13.4pct compared with - 4.2% year-on-year in mid March.
(2) container: the container throughput of the eight hub ports increased by + 5.6% year-on-year
In late March, the container throughput of the eight hub ports was + 5.6% year-on-year (the previous value was - 8.9%). Among them, the throughput of foreign trade containers was + 10.1% (the former value was - 1.2%) and that of domestic trade containers was - 7.4% (the former value was - 24.4%) year-on-year. According to the China Port Association, the recent covid-19 pneumonia epidemic in Shenzhen, Shanghai and other places has a certain impact on wharf production.
(3) throughput of key goods and port inventory
Crude oil: in terms of throughput, year-on-year + 23.4% (previous value - 3.8%); In terms of port deposit, year-on-year + 26.1% (previous value - 3.3%). Iron ore: in terms of throughput, year-on-year + 10.7% (previous value + 3.0%); In terms of port storage, from the perspective of 45 ports nationwide, the port storage of iron ore on April 1 was 154 million tons, an increase of 17.5% over the same period last year. Coal: in terms of throughput, Qinhuangdao Port + Shenhua Huanghua Port - 0.3% year-on-year (former value - 15.2%); In terms of port deposit, according to the caliber of Qinhuangdao Port + Shenhua Huanghua, year-on-year + 10.2% (previous value + 1.7%).
The adjustment of charging policy is expected to have a neutral impact on the port, and continue to pay attention to the adjustment of container handling rate
The adjustment of charging policy is expected to have a neutral impact on the port: on March 2, the notice of the national development and Reform Commission of the Ministry of transport on reducing and merging port charges and other related matters adjusted the charging methods of two ports: 1) cancel the government pricing of port facility safety premium, change it to the market adjusted price, and include the port operation lump sum fee as a sub item, and the charge shall not be higher than the original charging standard, which is not reduced or cancelled; 2) Adjust the charging structure of pilotage (shifting) fees by category and implement price adjustment in different proportions. The directional reduction of fees is not related to the port revenue.
Continue to pay attention to the adjustment of container handling rate: on December 1 last year, Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) announced that the handling fee of 20 foot and 40 foot empty and heavy containers of shipping companies will be increased by about 10% from January 1, 2022; On December 3 last year, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) announced that the transfer fee of 20 foot heavy containers for domestic trade was increased by about 50%; On December 8 last year, Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) announced that from January 1, 2022, the lump sum fee for port operation of ordinary foreign trade heavy container barge gathering mode will be increased by about 8%, and the fee for ordinary foreign trade heavy container trailer gathering mode and empty container will be increased by about 19%; On February 9, Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) qqct announced that the handling charges of 40 foot and 20 foot heavy containers in foreign trade were increased by about 14% and 12% respectively.
Sensitivity measurement: price adjustment is expected to bring revenue increment, but there is no marginal cost. We assume that the price of comprehensive container business in each port will increase by 10%. It is estimated that:
1) Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) : in 2021, the container revenue is 14.906 billion yuan, and the total net profit attributable to the parent company is 14.682 billion yuan. If the comprehensive price increases by 10%, the static profit elasticity is about 8%.;
2) Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) 2021 container related revenue is 6.748 billion yuan, and the total net profit attributable to the parent company is 4.332 billion yuan. If the comprehensive price increases by 10%, the static profit elasticity is about 12%;
3) in 2021, the revenue of qqct (51% equity participation) in charge of container business was 4.189 billion yuan, and the Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) total net profit attributable to parent company was 3.964 billion yuan. If the container price increased by 10%, the static profit elasticity was about 8%.
Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) , Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) , Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) , Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) qqct's price adjustment of handling charges is an adjustment to the published price, but it should be noted that there are differences between the published rate and the actual agreed rate signed with the shipping company, and it does not rule out adopting different price strategies for customers of different shipping companies.
Latest monthly port data
(1) in March, the cargo throughput of coastal ports was mainly monitored: year-on-year + 1.1% (previous value + 2.5%)
(2) container: in March, the container throughput of the eight hub ports increased by + 1.8% year-on-year
Among them, the throughput of foreign trade containers increased by + 3.9% (previous value + 2.7%) year-on-year, with an increase of 1.2pct.
(3) throughput of key goods
Crude oil: in terms of throughput, the year-on-year rate in March was - 1.8% (the previous value was - 14.9%); Iron ore: in terms of throughput, year-on-year in March was - 1.8% (previous value + 4.6%); Coal: in terms of throughput, the year-on-year rate in March was - 5.9% (the previous value was - 6.3%) (the Port Association focuses on monitoring the port caliber).
(4) key coastal ports
In February, the cargo throughput of major coastal ports in Jiangsu Province increased rapidly, and the Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) cargo throughput increased by + 10.6% year-on-year in the same month. The year-on-year growth rates of Xiamen port and Rizhao Port Co.Ltd(600017) month were 8.5% and 8.0% respectively.
In February, the cargo throughput of Jiangsu increased year-on-year, with Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) growth rate of 17.2%. The year-on-year growth rate of Xiamen port in February was 33.3%.
Key ports: in February, Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) (large city caliber) achieved a cargo throughput of 47 million tons Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) foreign trade cargo throughput and container throughput increased by + 4.6% and + 6.1% respectively year on year.
Latest shipping rate index
Baltic dry bulk index (BDI): on April 1, the BDI index was 2357 points, a decrease of 8.2% compared with March 24 and a year-on-year increase of 15.2%.
Crude oil transportation index (BDTI): on April 1, the BDTI index was 1321 points, an increase of 20.9% over March 24 and a year-on-year increase of 86.1%.
Shanghai export container freight index (SCFI): on April 1, the SCFI index was 4349 points, a decrease of 1.93% compared with March 25 and a significant year-on-year increase of 69.2%.
China export container freight index (CCFI): on April 1, the CCFI index was 3205 points, a decrease of 2.14% compared with March 25, with a significant year-on-year increase of 72.0%.
Investment advice
Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) : the logic of quantity and price is gradually verified. Benefiting from the growth of container business driven by the expansion of routes and the release of new liquid bulk cargo capacity in Dongjiakou port area, the liquid bulk cargo throughput increased. Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) (large market caliber) completed 630 million tons of cargo throughput in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 4.3%, and 23.71 million TEU of container throughput, a year-on-year increase of + 7.8%; In terms of rates, on January 28, 51% of the equity of Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) group was transferred to Shandong Port Group free of charge to complete the industrial and commercial change registration, and the actual controller of Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) shares was changed to Shandong SASAC, further promoting the improvement of regional port pattern in Shandong Province. It is expected that the rate side will continue to improve. In addition, on February 9, Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) qqct announced that the handling charges of 40 foot and 20 foot heavy containers for foreign trade will be increased by about 14% and 12% respectively. The logic of volume and price is gradually verified. The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 to be 1.170 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%.
Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) : the leader of underestimated value, benefiting from the location advantages, continues to be optimistic about the growth of the company's main port industry. In 2021, the company's container throughput increased by + 8.1% year-on-year to 47.033 million TEU, and the cargo throughput increased by + 5.7% year-on-year to 539 million tons. Under the premise of recent epidemic prevention and control, the company still maintained 24-hour operation and steadily promoted the superposition of multiple lines of shipping and real estate finance. The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 to be 5.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.6%. In addition, with accelerated capital operation and multi-party collaborative empowerment, the company plans to spin off and list its holding subsidiary Jinjiang shipping, and plans to strategically invest Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) 372 million shares. After this issuance, the company is expected to hold 23.08% of Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) shares.
Risk warning: deterioration of Global trade; The duration of the global epidemic exceeded expectations; The port policy was less than expected.
