Core view
With the arrival of the off-season of traditional consumption, the shortage of power coal supply and demand may be reduced. In the first quarter, affected by the fluctuation of overseas energy prices, the price of fossil energy increased significantly year-on-year. Due to the growth of alternative demand caused by the sharp rise of natural gas prices and the influence of overseas extreme weather, the price of power coal operated at a high level. In the first quarter, the price of coal long-term association increased significantly year-on-year and remained in the range of 720725 yuan / ton. On the supply side, from January to February, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, large-scale events, major conferences and other factors, the coal output decreased significantly month on month. The national development and Reform Commission made every effort to ensure the supply by adding 300 million tons of production capacity. The daily output is expected to gradually increase to the high level of the fourth quarter of last year in the second quarter. After April, the coal consumption will enter the traditional off-season, and the downstream is expected to weaken. With the gradual deepening of supply guarantee and the implementation scope of the long-term association The in-depth supervision of quantity and price is implemented, and the tight pattern of supply and demand in the first quarter is expected to slow down in the second quarter. In terms of coal price, the port price decreased significantly in late March, but we expect the tight supply and demand pattern to slow down, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly after stabilizing in the second quarter.
The tight situation of coking coal remains, and it is optimistic that the high price will continue this year. China's high-quality coking coal resources are relatively scarce. In addition, coking coal is deeply stored, difficult to mine, and greatly affected by environmental protection and safety. China has no large-scale new production capacity of coking coal in the past three years, resulting in the continuous tight relationship between supply and demand. In particular, Australia, China's main coking coal importer, has completely stopped trade since the end of 2020, and Mongolia's customs clearance has remained low due to the epidemic. From the data from January to February this year, The import source countries are mainly Russia and the United States. The continuous tight supply and demand pattern has promoted the sharp rise of coking coal prices. The price of Shanxi's main coking coal has risen from 2150 yuan in early January to 3050 yuan at present, an increase of 41.9%. The supply pattern of coking coal cannot be improved in the short term. It is expected that China's steady growth and overseas economic recovery, steel driven demand elasticity, coking coal will maintain a high outlook, and high-quality coking coal enterprises will continue to benefit. It is suggested to increase the target allocation proportion with rich coking coal resources.
In 2021, the dividend plan of some listed coal enterprises was disclosed, and a large proportion of dividends highlighted the investment value of the coal industry. This week, listed companies such as China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) disclosed their dividend plans for 2021, of which China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) plans to distribute cash dividends of about 50.466 billion yuan (including tax), accounting for 100.4% of the company's shareholders' net profit in 2021 Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) plans to distribute cash dividends of 1.76 billion yuan, accounting for 60.21% of the company's net profit available for distribution in 2021; Yankuang energy distributed a total dividend of about RMB 9.897 billion (including tax) to all shareholders in 2021, accounting for 60.87% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in 2021. Coal enterprises have benefited from the supply side reform, with continuous concentration of production capacity, relatively stable and efficient production capacity, steady rise of coal price center, continuous improvement of operating efficiency in the past three years, stable cash flow, continuous improvement of industry concentration in the future, and optimistic about the investment value of the coal industry under the high red rate.
Investment suggestions: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985)
Risk tip: downside risk of economic growth, mismatch risk of supply and demand, impact of extreme weather and coal policy are not as expected.
