The epidemic situation is sporadic in many parts of the country, and the tourism boom is low during the Qingming Festival. According to the calculation of the data center of the Ministry of culture and tourism, in 2022, during the three-day Tomb Sweeping Day holiday, 75.419 million people traveled in China, a year-on-year increase of – 26.2%, recovering to 68.0% in the same period in 2019; China’s tourism revenue reached 18.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 30.9%, recovering to 39.2% in the same period in 2019. Under the influence of epidemic spread and control in many parts of the country, the prosperity of travel during the Qingming Festival is low, and the recovery is less than that of the Spring Festival in 2022 (the number of tourists and tourism revenue recovered to 73.9% / 56.3% in 2019 respectively). Historically, from 2020 to 2022, the number of Chinese tourists during the Qingming holiday recovered to 38.6% / 91.1% / 67.3% in 2019 respectively; Tourism revenue recovered to 17.2% / 56.7% / 39.2% in 2019 respectively.
Affected by the restrictions on travel across provinces, peripheral and local tours continued to perform well. From the perspective of sending passengers, according to the statistics of the Ministry of transport, the total number of passengers sent by railway / highway / waterway / civil aviation throughout the country during the Qingming holiday is expected to be 53.781 million, a year-on-year increase of – 62.7%. Among them, 46.34 million passengers are expected to be sent by highway (year-on-year – 53.2%), 6.229 million passengers are expected to be sent by railway (year-on-year – 83.7%), 650000 passengers are expected to be sent by waterway (year-on-year – 77.0%), and 562000 passengers are expected to be sent by civil aviation (- 87.0%). Under the influence of the epidemic, road self driving is expected to be the main mode of travel. From the reservation situation of scenic spots and other places, according to Ctrip’s “travel insight during the 2022 Qingming holiday”, the popularity of short-distance travel and near outing in the city during the Qingming Festival this year is rising, and the orders of peripheral and local tickets account for 58%. Qunar big data shows that as of March 28, the city’s orders accounted for 45%, the province’s orders accounted for 50%, and the suburban tourism orders accounted for + 30% year-on-year. According to the same city travel, local hotel orders account for 67%.
Affected by the regional spread of the epidemic, the regional performance of the whole country has been differentiated. Due to the different situation of epidemic prevention and control in different regions, Qingming tourism travel is divided regionally. 1) The performance of some provinces is relatively stable. Taking Beijing as an example, 185 scenic spots (regions) monitored by Beijing have received 5.546 million tourists, a year-on-year increase of – 8.9%, returning to 90% in the same period in 2019; The cumulative total operating revenue was 280 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 2.3%, an increase of 6.2% compared with 2019. 2) According to the insight into the travel trend of the 2022 Qingming holiday released by Ctrip, due to the small impact of this round of epidemic, the western tourism market has become a highlight of Qingming travel, and the total number of tourism orders in the West accounts for 67% of the eastern tourism (only 33% in 2021); From the year-on-year recovery of the overall order volume, the recovery of western tourism is nearly 20% ahead of that of Eastern tourism.
Investment suggestion: disturbed by the epidemic, China’s consumption and travel have been affected since March, and the growth rate of Qingming data fell month on month as scheduled. In the current context, we expect that the impact of the epidemic on the economy and consumption will last for a long time. In this context: 1) continue to recommend the leader of the supermarket sector. Among them, Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) as the leader, the logic is expected to improve, the short-term same store index is expected to continue to be confirmed, and it undertakes the supply of people’s livelihood during the epidemic, the index is excellent, and the same store index of Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) 3 is excellent; 2) Pay attention to the medium and long-term allocation value of meituan. As a leading Internet enterprise with scale advantages and efficiency barriers, it operates well in various indicators in the early stage and has strong business resilience during the epidemic. If the epidemic recovers in the follow-up, it is expected that the local demand elasticity will be large; 3) Continue to recommend the recovery sector. Among them, the hotel leader has both attack and defense, has long-term growth, is expected to benefit from changes in the pattern during the epidemic, and is expected to continue to recover; Catering and scenic spots are expected to recover with the greatest flexibility. Key recommendations: Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Huazhu group, Helens, jiumaojiu and Naixue tea; 4) Recommend high-quality leaders China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Anker Innovations Technology Co.Ltd(300866) etc. with long-term growth and relatively low current valuation; 5) It is suggested to pay attention to the leading segments with relatively reasonable valuation, certain expansion capacity and expected to be further repaired in the future.
Risk tips: 1) overall weak consumer demand or small-scale outbreak of the epidemic again; 2) Industry competition intensifies; 3) The expansion of leading enterprises is less than expected; 4) The investment in marketing, innovation and Exhibition stores of listed companies has increased significantly.
