One week resumption:
This week, power equipment and new energy (CITIC level I) fell 0.49%, 2.92 percentage points behind the market. In terms of overall market performance, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.19%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 2.43%, and the gem index rose 1.10%. Among the sub sectors of power equipment, electrical equipment fell by 0.65%, wind power fell by 2.13% and photovoltaic fell by 2.44%.
Photovoltaic:
1. In order to get rid of dependence on Russian energy, the demand for PV in Europe in 2022q2 is expected to continue to increase. According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, under the background of the shortage of supply caused by the overhaul and maintenance of large silicon factories and the accelerated progress of the new release capacity of silicon wafers, the situation of silicon material supply in short supply continues, the price of silicon material has increased for 11 consecutive weeks, and the average transaction price of single crystal re feeding has increased by 0.64% to 249800 yuan / ton compared with last week. It is expected that the tight situation of silicon material supply and demand will continue in April, and the price of silicon material will remain high; On the other hand, the operating rate of silicon wafers remains high. Longji central raised the price of silicon wafers again. In the second quarter, the demand for orders in the European market is expected to continue to increase, and there is an upward momentum in component prices.
2. The action of Europe and the United States on China’s photovoltaic industry may bring short-term emotional disturbance, but the actual impact is limited. Recently, the US Department of Commerce said that it would launch an anti circumvention investigation on Chinese Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) products. Meanwhile, the EU energy commissioner said that the EU would rebuild Europe’s Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) manufacturing industry at all costs, but China’s photovoltaic manufacturing industry still has obvious advantages in cost, scale and technological progress, In the short term, it may be difficult for other regions to achieve decoupling from China’s photovoltaic manufacturing industry while vigorously developing the installed capacity of photovoltaic. At the same time, the EU launched the solar powering EU energy independence plan on March 31, and put forward the radical goal of adding 39gw of photovoltaic installed capacity (23.3gw for roof distribution and 15.7gw for utilities) in the EU in 2022, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50% (25.9gw in 2021), which will further accelerate the global demand for photovoltaic installed capacity.
3. In terms of investment: (1) the demand boom in 2022q1 is improving, pushing up the prices of products in all links. With the release of upstream capacity in Q2, the prices of the industrial chain are expected to decline, and the end of the interest rate increase cycle in the first stage is superimposed. At the same time, China accelerates the construction of new infrastructure (photovoltaic, etc.), the photovoltaic industrial chain ushers in better allocation opportunities. It is recommended to focus on the leading Jingke energy, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) . (2) The price of some auxiliary materials may rise due to the release of demand, the price rise of raw materials, structural supply and demand shortage and other factors. It is recommended to focus on Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , and pay attention to Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) . (3) Under the background of industrial chain game, the supply and demand situation of large-scale products is relatively good. 210 product leaders are recommended from bottom to top. At the same time, the semiconductor silicon wafer business has ushered in a high-speed development Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) . (4) Overseas demand and distributed photovoltaic demand will be released first in the process of module price decline, with emphasis on Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) .
Wind power:
1. Shandong Province has made it clear that it will subsidize offshore wind power projects, and the development of China’s offshore wind projects is expected to speed up. On April 1, the deputy director of Shandong Provincial Energy Bureau said that he would subsidize the “14th five year plan” offshore wind power projects completed and connected to the grid in Shandong Province from 2022 to 2024, which is the second province after Guangdong Province to explicitly subsidize the offshore wind projects; With the continuous decline of the bidding price of offshore wind turbines, the process of sea wind parity is expected to accelerate under the background of large-scale and domestic substitution; In the future, if the national level also continues to strengthen the development and approval of projects in sea areas under state control, we believe that the new installed capacity of offshore wind power in China is expected to exceed expectations during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
2. In terms of investment: (1) Haifeng construction is expected to exceed expectations and under the logic of domestic substitution, recommend Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , pay attention to Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) ; (2) Focus on Zhejiang Xcc Group Co.Ltd;(603667) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) ; (3) Under the logic of profit recovery: focus on Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Sany Heavy energy (to be listed).
Risk tips:
The progress of issuing policies is less than expected; The recovery of fan bidding price is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials in the industrial chain fluctuates; The investment and information construction of the State Grid are lower than expected, resulting in the risk of blocking the installation and landing.
