I. with the rapid development of photovoltaic industry, adhesive film particles are a stable growth track
As one of the most competitive new energy forms, photovoltaic power generation is still expected to expand at a high speed in the future. According to CPIA data, the global installed capacity will reach 170gw in 2021, and it is expected that the installed capacity will reach 218gw / 248gw / 273gw / 300gw from 2022 to 2025 respectively, and the corresponding annual demand increment of adhesive film particles will reach 260000 tons / 180000 tons / 140000 tons / 150000 tons respectively. After the industry reshuffle in the past few years, the global adhesive film production capacity is almost concentrated in China. As the core packaging materials, EVA and Poe are still highly dependent on imports. In 2021, China's dependence on EVA imports is still more than 50%. Poe is monopolized by overseas manufacturers and all rely on imports. The rapid expansion of downstream demand and low localization rate have brought broad market space for the development of EVA and Poe materials.
II. Photovoltaic materials are expected to maintain a high prosperity
From 2021 to now, five sets of EVA units of Sinochem Quanzhou, Yangzi Petrochemical, Yanchang Yulin, Zhejiang Petrochemical and SINOCHEM have been put into operation in China, but the photovoltaic material process is complex. It still takes a long time to explore the process and accumulate technology from the production of the unit to the stable output of photovoltaic material. At present, only a few of these five sets of units have photovoltaic material output. In addition, in 2022, Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) plans to expand the capacity of 30000 tons The increment of photovoltaic materials brought by the production of Xinjiang Tianli in the fourth quarter is limited. Therefore, from 2021 to 2022, regardless of technical transformation, Zhejiang Petrochemical is the main substantive increment of photovoltaic materials in China. Under the background of still rapid growth of photovoltaic installed capacity, it is expected that the bottleneck of photovoltaic material supply will be difficult to be effectively alleviated in 2022.
The large-scale production of EVA has led to a significant increase in the demand for vinyl acetate by ethylene process. In the past five years, VA has been in the state of de capacity. Therefore, it is expected that VA will still be in the high boom range in 2022
III. Poe high growth track, technical bottleneck to be broken
Poe is made of ethylene and α- Elastomers obtained by random copolymerization of olefins (1-butene, 1-hexene or 1-octene) are widely used in the fields of blending modification and photovoltaic adhesive film due to their excellent material properties and PID resistance, but their technical barriers are high, which are widely used in polymerization process, metallocene catalyst α- It is difficult to obtain olefins. At present, China still has no industrial production device, and the high price and all dependence on imports limit the large-scale application of Poe.
In terms of photovoltaic adhesive film, with the trend of n-type cells and the increase in the proportion of double glass modules, CPIA predicts that the proportion of Poe adhesive film and coextrusion EPE adhesive film with good processing performance of EVA and good PID resistance of Poe in the adhesive film will increase from 23% in 2021 to 31% in 2025. According to this calculation, the demand for POE particles in China's photovoltaic field will reach 290000 tons in 2025
At present, Chinese enterprises are committed to the localization of Poe, of which Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) has made the fastest progress, and the pilot test has been completed. Maoming Petrochemical, sierbang, Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co.Ltd(002648) , Wison engineering have proposed planning, Poe may be in the pilot test stage, and with the breakthrough of localization, Poe has a huge space to play in the field of material substitution and photovoltaic.
Risk tips: 1. The growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity is lower than expected; 2. The new production capacity of EVA photovoltaic materials was put into operation faster; 3. The progress of Poe localization is less than expected; 4. Part of the data calculation is subjective and only for reference
