Under the impact of the epidemic, investment opportunities in the infrastructure real estate chain may reappear. Since March, the epidemic situation has been sporadic in many places across the country, and the number of cases in some provinces and cities has increased rapidly. Under the influence of the epidemic, the rhythm of demand recovery has been interrupted, indicating that steady growth requires greater policy support, and the interrupted demand may rebound in the future. As the downward pressure caused by the epidemic intensifies, we believe that the government will further relax policies and strengthen stimulus, and the real estate infrastructure industry chain may be reflected first. Considering that the early infrastructure stimulus policy has been put on the agenda, the follow-up real estate policy is expected to be relaxed, including relaxing the loan construction of developers and home buyers, increasing the construction of public rental housing, helping developers restructure their debts, and reducing the down payment requirements of more local governments. The corresponding real estate industry chain is expected to usher in valuation and repair opportunities. The situation this time is different from that in 2020. In 2020, the varieties with better performance are glass, pipe, waterproof and so on. The reason behind this is that these categories are highly standardized and can quickly respond to post recovery demand. At present, the real estate industry chain is strongly impacted by policies in the early stage, and the market is expected to focus more on industry leaders. Therefore, the screening of individual stocks is more important than the screening of subdivided categories. From the perspective of business model, we believe that the model of relying on high leverage to participate in centralized real estate purchase to obtain high growth in the past few years may not be applicable at present. Corresponding to better cash flow, subdivision varieties or leading stocks with high distribution channels and C-end users will be more favored. On this basis, we should pay more attention to the risks caused by the price changes of raw materials. In comparison, we believe that the raw materials of PP pipes come from PPR. Since 2021, the price fluctuation is relatively small compared with other bulk commodities, and the risk of raw materials of enterprises is relatively less than that of glass and waterproof.
Market review this week: this week (2022 / 03 / 282022 / 04 / 01), the building materials sector (CITIC) index increased by 5.7%, compared with the excess return of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 3.3%. Year to date, the yield of the building materials sector is – 11.3%, compared with the excess yield of CSI 300 is 2.1%. Last week, the yield of the preferred portfolio was 5.1%, compared with the excess yield of the building materials index was – 0.6%, and the cumulative yield / excess yield was – 14.3/11%.
Summary of weekly data of building materials: the average price of float glass nationwide this week was 104.71 yuan / weight box, down 1.5% month on month and 9.2% year-on-year. The inventory was 56.24 million weight boxes, a month on month decrease of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 92.8%. Under the influence of the epidemic, glass inventory and price may fluctuate in the short term. This week, the average price of national mainstream winding direct yarn was 6300 yuan / ton, up 0.1% month on month; The average price of electronic yarn was 9363 yuan / ton, down 2.6% month on month; This week, the average transaction price of the national cement market was 512 yuan / ton, up 0.6% month on month. Glass fiber still maintains a tight balance between supply and demand, and the high price is expected to be maintained. This week, the cement shipment rate increased by 1.4% to 57.9% month on month; The storage capacity ratio was 62.7%, with a month on month decrease of 3.0 PCT. Cement shipments fell and storage capacity ratio rebounded. We believe that the current nationwide epidemic has a certain impact on the construction industry, resulting in weak data performance of shipments and storage capacity ratio.
The production capacity of glass has decreased, and the production capacity of glass fiber has increased simultaneously with the inventory: the production of glass resumed in March / cold repair 0 / 2, and the daily melting capacity of glass in production was 172500 tons by the end of March, a decrease of 1400 tons / day compared with the end of February 22. In March, the glass fiber industry added 160000 tons of production capacity and 6253000 tons of production capacity (annualized). At the end of March, the glass fiber inventory was 290000 tons.
Investment proposal and investment object
Recommend CSG a ( Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , buy); Under the situation of infrastructure recovery, early cycle products are recommended Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ( Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , buy), Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ( Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , buy). It is suggested to pay attention to the cement faucet Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ( Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , not rated), Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ( Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , not rated), and Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ( Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , buy). Preferred combination of Dongfang Building Materials next week: CSG a, Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552)
Risk tips
The growth rate of infrastructure / real estate investment did not meet expectations, and the price of raw materials fluctuated sharply
