Key investment points
Local purchase and loan restrictions continue to be relaxed, optimistic about the improvement of real estate data and driving the repair of home valuation
Demand side of real estate: on April 1, Quzhou cancelled a number of purchase and sale restriction policies implemented for 21 years; On April 2, Qinhuangdao issued the purchase restriction policy for waste paper for 17 years; On April 4, Lanzhou proposed to apply for the first set of housing loan policy for families who have one set of housing and have settled the loan. It has become the second city in Zhengzhou to recognize the loan but not the house. Since the beginning of March, many weak second tier and third and fourth tier cities have followed up to relax regulation, with accelerated pace and greater efforts. On the whole, the direction of easing policy has been very clear.
Real estate supply side: on April 1, rongchuang, China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) , and Aoyuan released good news one after another. Rongchuang's domestic rongchuang debt extension was approved by investors, China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) debt restructuring was promoted in essence and assets were sold steadily. Aoyuan introduced state-owned assets, war investment and relief cooperation. It can be seen that private real estate developers are resolving risks and increasing their support for relief. According to the resumption, the valuation of the home sector is highly linked to the real estate sales data. At present, the valuation of the home sector basically returns to the level under the high pressure of the 18 year real estate downturn + China US trade war (such as europai 22x, gujia 19x, Minhua 11x, etc.), and has reached the bottom. The follow-up real estate sales data is expected to gradually improve. At the same time, the weakening of the supply side real estate developers' capital chain risk will indirectly reduce the pressure on home suppliers, In addition, we do not have the conditions to implement the pilot real estate tax reform during the year. We believe that a stable real estate environment will have a strong support for home valuation and repair.
Excess of leading EPS α Growth deserves more attention, and the market share increases smoothly
(1) the first quarterly report is expected to show resilience under pressure:
Combined with the recent follow-up, we expect that the leading household segment of 22q1 still has a good performance and shows strong growth toughness in the macro weak and disturbed environment of the epidemic in March. For example, gujia Q1 is expected to achieve 15-20% revenue and profit growth, europay expects 15% revenue growth and slightly slower profit, and Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , Zhibang and gold medal are expected to have double-digit growth, Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) in the case of Evergrande's business gap, it is also expected to have a high single digit growth. Throughout the year, driven by the recovery of demand after the epidemic and the improvement of real estate data, the performance of q2-q4, the home leader, is expected to be better.
(2) in the short term, the 315 whole package has achieved good drainage effect and accelerated the concentration of industry traffic:
For the customization sector, 315 can basically reflect the general demand and consumption intention of decoration this year, and has strong guiding significance for the business outlook of the whole year. Although the front-end storage of 315 was affected by the epidemic in the second half of this year, the leading stocks basically ensured the growth of double-digit year-on-year passenger flow. At the same time, driven by packages such as 39800 and 29800, the customer unit value also increased rapidly; The main reason behind this is that the leading package has a strong ability to attract passengers into the store, while the small brands in the industry do not have the supply chain & the overall design ability has been widened. In addition, software home leaders have also begun to get involved in customized home business. For example, it has become the consensus of leaders to accelerate the layout of software + customization integration, focus on the whole house, make large customer orders and dig deep customer value.
(3) in the medium and long term, there is more room to improve the concentration, and the foundation laying capacity of the front, middle and background of the leader is excessive α The growth home sector is also entering a growth stage in which the strong are constantly strong and the Matthew effect is concentrated and accelerated. The comprehensive factory scale of the household sector is nearly 800 billion, including about 450 billion customization + software. At present, the largest Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) 21 year in the industry is expected to achieve a scale of 20 + billion, with a market share of only 4% (full caliber 2.5%), which has great room for improvement compared with Europe, America, Japan and South Korea.
After experiencing category expansion and integration (for example, oupai and Zhibang wardrobe have surpassed kitchen cabinets to become the largest business), some companies began to gradually enter the stage of large home, which can truly provide one-stop consumption scenes and services and realize the grab of front-end passenger flow. Taking 315 marketing package as an example, the business logic behind the SKU integration of household appliances and software accessories is a consideration of the comprehensive dimension of the enterprise. Although the contents of the whole package are similar in form, the requirements of brands in digitization, supply chain, team construction and capacity layout are much higher than before. Typical Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , through leading service and retail related construction, are obviously at the forefront of the industry.
Investment advice
Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) - to become the leading retail household. The integration of software and customization has achieved results in retail transformation and operation efficiency improvement in recent years. Through the digitization of stores, the iteration of organization system and the construction of warehouse distribution services, the channel sinking and the operation of large stores have been gradually straightened out. The company's recent dealer shareholding plan further binds the internal mechanism. At present, it corresponds to 19x in 22 years, with a compound growth rate of 20-25% in the future, and underestimates the consumption white horse Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) - one stop home service provider leader. The steady growth of big home leaders has significant advantages in channel management, supply chain and information construction. In recent years, the company has opened up the front, middle and back ends through CAXA system, significantly improved efficiency, developed and integrated channels, and integrated the flow entrance of home decoration. In the home sector, the comprehensive service ability is the most prominent and the growth benchmark. At present, it corresponds to 21x in 22 years, with a compound growth rate of 15-20%. The two white horses with the strongest certainty of share improvement are preferred. At the same time, we also suggest to focus on high-quality and underestimated track leaders such as Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) , Minhua holdings, Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) .
Risk tips
The industry competition intensifies, the real estate policy is tightened again, and the cost of raw materials rises sharply.
