Core view
Investment suggestions: maintain the “over allocation” rating of the sector, the multi-point outbreak of the epidemic in the short term, and the consumption is under pressure. In the long term, it is still optimistic about the quarterly recovery of consumption under the background of “stable growth”. It is recommended to pay attention to the subdivision leaders with fundamental support and long-term business toughness: 1) cosmetics: the long-term prosperity of the industry is uncertain, but the industry differentiation is also evolving. According to the feedback of the annual reports published by listed companies recently, Product upgrading and diversified distribution of channels are the key to help leading enterprises maintain excellent growth. It is recommended to focus on Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) , etc., which have accumulated profound experience in product and channel layout and actively explore the development of new brands; 2) Under the escalation of epidemic prevention and control, consumers’ hoarding and homesteading scenes promote the demand for essential categories such as fresh food, and supermarkets with strong supply chain capacity are expected to benefit. At the same time, with the weakening of the impact of community group purchase and other modes, as well as the business adjustment of leading companies, the business supermarket sector is expected to usher in business repair, focusing on Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) , etc; 3) Yimei: driven by the strong demand of consumers, the prosperity of the industry has not changed for a long time, and the policy is strictly supervised to further promote the standardized development of the industry. Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) and Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , which have compliant products and sufficient production capacity, are mainly recommended.
Medical beauty: “Shuiguang needle” and others are included in the management of class III medical devices, and the standardized development of the industry is conducive to the upstream compliance leader. According to the adjustment of the classification catalogue of medical devices, “Shuiguang needle”, “RF Beauty device” and “implant wire for plastic surgery” are supervised according to class III medical devices. Class III medical devices adopt the registration approval system, which has high certification requirements and takes a long time. The first certified enterprises are expected to take the lead in enjoying the compliance market dividend. Although Shuiguang needle is a medical beauty product with high popularity, at present, there are no products with class III certificates in China, After the implementation of the standard, enterprises with similar water light products in the short term are expected to benefit from the transfer of demand; In the long run, industry standardization is expected to optimize the competitive environment, and leading enterprises of compliant upstream products Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) and Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) are expected to benefit.
Cosmetics: tiktok brand is fast in volume. Tiktok as a strategic emerging platform has become an important direction for all companies. According to the data of Weigua: about 3.7 billion yuan, year-on-year ; 2) Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) : Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) q1 Gmv is about 230 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 80%; Caitang Q1 gmv0 4.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 715%; 3) Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) : Yuze, baicaoji and Goff Q1 achieved Gmv of about 19 / 09 / 02 million yuan respectively; 4) Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) : the Q1 Gmv of runbaiyan, kuadi, mibeier and BM is 0.71/1.11/0.33/168 million yuan respectively.
Social zero and market data: from January to February, social zero increased by + 6.7% year-on-year, and the required growth was stable. From January to February, the total amount of social zero was 7.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.7%; Among them, the national online retail sales increased by + 10.2% year-on-year, the growth of mandatory categories was stable, and the optional categories improved month on month. In terms of market conditions in March 22, the SW trade index fell by 8.50%, underperforming the market by 0.66pct, and the SW Meihu index fell by 4.30%, outperforming the market by 3.54pct. The rise and fall of the two sector indexes ranked 17th and 10th in shenwanzi industry respectively.
Key recommended combinations: in April, the key recommended combinations of Commerce and retail are: Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) .
Risk tips: new product launch is less than expected, exhibition stores are less than expected, policy changes, etc
