Key investment points
Market review: last week, the electrical equipment sector closed at 1138946, down - 0.49%. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 328272, up 2.19%; Shenzhen composite index closed at 1222793, up 1.29%; The CSI index rose 16.76% to close at 4276.2%; The gem index closed at 266697, up 1.1%.
In terms of sub sectors, the photovoltaic equipment sector fell - 1.93%; Wind power equipment sector fell - 3.54%; The battery sector rose 1.78%, with the largest increase; Power grid equipment sector fell - 0.4%; The motor sector fell - 7.47%, with the largest decline; Other power equipment sectors fell - 3.75%.
Investment suggestion: last week, the electrical equipment sector continued to adjust, the range narrowed, and the performance was worse than the market index. Except for the battery sector, all other segments fell. We believe that after the recent continuous adjustment, the valuation of Dianxin sector has returned to reasonable, the future decline space is limited, and the rebound is imminent. At present, the photovoltaic sector is still strongly recommended. The performance probability in the first quarter is higher than expected, and the growth certainty of the sector in the future is the highest. In the global environment of high oil and gas prices, it is strongly recommended to actively layout the photovoltaic sector; The valuation of the new energy vehicle sector has reached a stage low. We expect that the sales volume data in March and April will have significant month on month growth, and there is a rebound opportunity in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of high nickel ternary and undervalued copper foil.
New energy: the three ministries and commissions jointly carry out self inspection of renewable energy subsidies, with hundreds of billions of subsidies or one-time payment. In terms of silicon material output, China's polysilicon output in March was 54600 tons, an increase of 4.4% month on month; In the first quarter, China's polysilicon output was 159000 tons, and the import volume in the same period was expected to be 22000 tons. The total supply of silicon materials in China was about 181000 tons. We believe that in the short term, the probability of photovoltaic data in the first quarter is higher than expected. With the continuous release of new silicon production capacity, the supply side is gradually abundant, which is expected to drive the growth of downstream demand. In the long run, the global PV installed capacity is expected to exceed 200GW in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than 30%. At present, there are investment opportunities in the whole PV sector. The order of segment segmentation is silicon battery silicon wafer module. It is recommended to actively layout companies with alpha.
Wind power: in the global environment of carbon emission reduction, it also plays an important role as photovoltaic, and the long-term trend is good. However, the short-term performance is affected by the price rise of upstream raw materials and the price reduction of downstream host machines, so it is difficult to achieve high growth. At present, the valuation is at a reasonable level. It is suggested to pay attention to the catalysis brought to the sector by the future bidding situation of the industry and the price trend of raw materials.
New energy vehicles: Byd Company Limited(002594) announced to stop the production of fuel vehicles. This week, the new forces of car making released the delivery data in March one after another. Among them, the delivery of Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile, Nezha automobile and Zero run automobile exceeded 10000. The sales data in March and April are expected to exceed expectations, forming a catalytic factor of stock price. In the long run, due to the impact of lithium supply, the growth rate of global sales may be lower than expected, and the possibility of sector opportunities is low. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of technology replacement and capacity tension. It is recommended that the domestic aluminum-plastic film sector may replace the accelerated aluminum-plastic film sector this year.
Power equipment: last week, the international commodity prices remained stable as a whole, and the prices of copper, aluminum and steel were adjusted at a high level. It is still difficult to predict the subsequent price change trend and continue to follow up.
The combination of this week will combine the combination of the combination of the week: Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) .
Risk warning: the risk that the growth rate of the industry is lower than expected; Risk of policy uncertainty; The risk of price decline due to fierce market competition.
