In March, the SW Semiconductor Index fell 12.78%, and the valuation was at the lowest level in nearly three years. In March 2022, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 0.02%, underperforming the NASDAQ index by 3.43 PCT, and has fallen 13.11% since the beginning of the year, underperforming the NASDAQ index by 4.00 PCT. The SW Semiconductor Index fell 12.78%, outperforming the electronics industry by 2.19pct and losing the CSI 300 index by 4.94pct; Since the beginning of the year, it has fallen 22.19%, outperforming the electronics industry by 3.27pct and losing the CSI 300 index by 7.66pct. From the perspective of the semiconductor sub industry, the overall decline, of which semiconductor materials, analog chip design and digital chip design led the decline, down 16.85%, 13.90% and 13.42% respectively; Discrete devices and semiconductor equipment fell later, down 8.83% and 10.88% respectively. As of March 31, 2012, SW semiconductor PE (TTM) was 47 times, a new low in recent three years.
Semiconductor sales increased by 32.4% year-on-year, and the revenue of liandian and silijie was bright in February. In February 2022, the global semiconductor sales volume was US $52.5 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 32.4% and a month on month increase of 3.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 5.6pct over the previous month; The sales volume of semiconductor equipment in Japan was 294 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 56.8%, a month on month decrease of 4.0%, and the year-on-year growth rate narrowed by 12.6pct compared with the previous month. The contract price of memory chip was stable in February, the spot price DRAM fell and NAND rose in March. Based on the monthly revenue data of Taiwan stocks, the overall month on month decrease in February and the year-on-year growth rate slightly expanded compared with January. Among them, liandian and silijie performed well, with year-on-year growth of 39.21% (+ 7.38pct) and 65.14% (+ 33.63pct) respectively, and month on month growth of 1.65% and - 1.20%.
Investment strategy: automobile has become an important growth pole, driving the demand for simulation, power and MCU. After 21 years of shortage and price rise in the semiconductor industry, some downstream demand slowed down in 22 years. We believe that the high base in 2021 will bring obvious pressure on the growth rate in 2022 month by month. At the same time, 1q22 is affected by the repeated epidemic in China, and the supply and demand of some enterprises may be affected. At the same time, April is the intensive period for the release of annual reports and first quarterly reports. It is suggested to pay attention to companies with high prosperity or expected performance. From the monthly revenue of the Taiwanese semiconductor companies, the monthly revenue of the monthly revenue of the Taiwanese semiconductor companies, the analog chip design business silicon Lijie and the mature process wafer foundry and fabfabfabfabfabfabic couplet are performing well, while according to iciinsights' estimates, in the next few years, the downstream with the highest growth rate of analog and MCU in the next few years, the downstream with the highest growth rate of simulations and MCU growth rates in simulation and MCU are all cars in the next few years. It's suggested to focus on Sg Micro Corp(300661) \yes.
Monthly topic: core source system - focus on high-performance and high-power power power supply solutions. Core source system (MPS) has a revenue of US $1.208 billion and a net profit of US $242 million in 2021. Its products include DCDC converter, ACDC converter, LED drive, battery management, etc. it is widely used in computing and storage (31%), automobile (17%), industry (15%), consumption (23%) and communication (14%). At present, the company has more than 4000 product item numbers, more than 2200 employees and more than 10000 customers. As of March 31, 2012, the market value of the company was US $22.6 billion. With the proprietary process platform BCD plus, the company provided the core power supply scheme for Intel Grantley server platform for the first time in 2014, and will focus more on the fields of computing and automobile in the future. The company's 4q21 revenue is US $340 million (YoY 44%, QoQ 4%), and the 1q22 revenue is expected to be US $350370 million (yoy39-44%, QoQ 5% - 9%), and the annual revenue in 2022 is US $1.53 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26%.
Risk warning: the domestic substitution process is not as expected; Downstream demand is lower than expected; Industry competition intensifies.
