Core view:
Sharp fluctuations in energy prices stimulate the rise of non-ferrous metal commodity prices. Russia Ukraine incident continues to ferment, and sanctions and anti sanctions continue to increase, which has become the main reason affecting the price of non-ferrous metal commodities. The opinions of western countries on Russia’s energy embargo are not unified, and Russia’s sanctions against western countries with natural gas supply have further strengthened the market’s concerns about global energy supply, inflation expectations caused by sharp fluctuations in energy prices, and possible supply interference after Russia’s sanctions, which have stimulated the rise of non-ferrous metal commodity prices. China’s consumption of non-ferrous metals began to recover gradually after the festival, but the deterioration of the epidemic situation in many parts of the country had a certain inhibitory effect on the construction of non-ferrous metals downstream. In March, the PMI index fell to 49.5, below the dry and prosperous line for the first time since last October. After the two sessions, the steady growth of infrastructure is accelerated, and the real estate policies in many places are relaxed. After the epidemic is controlled, it is expected that the consumption of non-ferrous metals will increase marginally in the future, and the prosperity of the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to rise further.
Investment advice: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to ferment, sanctions and anti sanctions continue to increase, Russia uses energy supply threats to counter the sanctions of European and American countries, stimulate the sharp fluctuation of energy prices such as crude oil and natural gas, and the resonant rise of energy prices and food prices, so that the pressure of high inflation continues. Although the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points at the interest rate meeting in March and expressed the hawkish tough position, the interest rates of 10-year and 2-year treasury bonds in the United States reversed for the first time since 2019 in early April, indicating that the market’s expectation of “stagflation” in the U.S. economy is strengthening, and the allocation of gold to hedge the risk value of stagflation is expected to highlight. At present, the valuation of China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) sector is at a 10-year low. It is recommended to pay attention to Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ( Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ), Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) ( Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) ), Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) ( Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) ), Hunan Gold Corporation Limited(002155) ( Hunan Gold Corporation Limited(002155) ), Zhongjin Gold Corp.Ltd(600489) ( Zhongjin Gold Corp.Ltd(600489) ), Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) ( Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) ). The downstream of non-ferrous metals has gradually entered the peak construction season, with steady growth, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment has rebounded significantly. The multi place policy of real estate has begun to relax, and there may be further easing policies in the future. The industrial metals in the upstream of the real estate industry chain in the upper reaches of the real estate industry chain are likely to pick up with the downstream demand picking up, and the boom margin is rising. It’s suggested to focus on the industrial metals sector. It’s suggested to focus on the industrial metals sector. It’s suggested to focus on the industrial metals sector. It’s recommended to focus on the industrial metal sector. It’s recommended to focus on the industrial metal sector’s leading enterprise China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) 89 Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) ( Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co.Ltd(600497) ), Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co.Ltd(000060) ( Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co.Ltd(000060) ). The global shortage of lithium resources continues. Allkem raised the long-term association price of spodumene in 2022q2 to $5000 / ton, while Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, expects that the balance between supply and demand of lithium resources may return to normal after 2-3 years. At present, accelerating the development of China’s lithium resources and strengthening the coordination of upstream and downstream enterprises in the lithium battery industry chain are necessary measures for China to ensure the supply and stable price of key raw materials in the new energy lithium battery industry chain. This year, China’s policy environment may be conducive to accelerating the development and utilization of lithium resources such as Sichuan lithium mine and Jiangxi yunmu. It is suggested to pay attention to Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) ( Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) ) with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium mine and clear increment of lithium resources in the future Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) ）、 Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) ）、 Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) ）、 Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) ）、 Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ）、 Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ）、 Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ）、 Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) ）。
Risk tips: 1) low downstream demand for non-ferrous metals; 2) Metal prices fell sharply; 3) The global epidemic continues to deteriorate; 4) The US dollar is stronger than expected; 5) The production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected; 6) Global liquidity is tighter than expected.
