Wide credit is conducive to the expansion of commercial banks, less provision and boost performance growth. (1) With the gradual implementation of the wide credit policy, the growth rate of bank asset scale resumed year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter, which led to the improvement of revenue and profit level. As the provision decreased year-on-year, the profit growth rate after provision was higher than that of revenue. (2) On the whole, the expansion of assets and the decrease of provision are the main reasons for the performance growth of state-owned banks and joint-stock banks in the fourth quarter. Among them, the explanation of provision is higher for joint-stock banks than for large state-owned banks.
Due to the problem of long-term deposit interest rate growth, the net asset ratio still benefits from a slight gap in long-term deposit pricing. (1) In terms of asset structure, the growth of loans and financial investment has rebounded, indicating that many lines of bank credit and gold market are in the stage of table expansion; In the fourth quarter, the interest rate of corporate credit stabilized, while the pricing level of personal loans declined, and the weighted asset income is still on the downward track. (2) In terms of debt structure, the growth rate of deposits continued to decline, and interbank financing made up for the gap. On the whole, the interest rate spread in a single quarter expanded slightly month on month, but it is still declining year-on-year, which indicates that the credit expansion method of finding an alternative real estate and local government financing platform for a long time is still being explored.
Small topic: the collection business dominated by financial consignment is facing stress test. (1) Since the beginning of the year, due to the political risk of overseas margin and the expectation of interest rate increase in the United States, the sharp fluctuation of A-share market has significantly affected the net value performance of public funds and financial products. The frequent withdrawal of income and net breaking lead to the redemption pressure of bank financial products and public funds, which has a particularly significant impact on equity public funds, and the allocation of certain equity positions "fixed income +" bank financial management has also been impacted. Compared with public funds, bank wealth management products take bottom positions with high-grade credit bonds and interest rate bonds, which reflects the risk aversion attribute as a whole. It is easy to obtain the favor of funds in the environment of sharp correction of the stock market. However, at the same time, we should face up to the fact that in the era of net worth products, some "fixed income +" products bank wealth management significantly lower the allocation of traditional non-standard assets, and increase the allocation of equity assets through outsourcing, direct investment and other forms. (2) In 2022, the equity market back test made bank financial management, especially the "fixed income +" products with a scale of nearly 10% of the whole industry, undergo the stress test for the first time. According to wind statistics, by the end of March, it is estimated that 25% of the products issued by bank financial subsidiaries have a negative yield since the beginning of the year, of which 8% of the net value of financial products has "broken 1".
Do a good job in the product withdrawal in the short term, and pay attention to the adjustment of product demand caused by the decline of customer risk preference after the market shock. It is expected that low-risk pure debt and cash management financial products will be more popular after April. From a longer-term perspective, the recent market adjustment provides a rare window period for the asset management and wealth management departments of commercial banks to strengthen investor education and build an asset allocation system and product sales system "centered on the interests of customers". For example, improve the asset allocation system, improve the creation of pension financial products, strengthen the appropriateness management of investors, and explore the innovation of sales models such as buyer investment advisers.
