Core view
Green and low-carbon development has become a global consensus. In order to achieve the global temperature target of 1.5 ℃, the relevant carbon market mechanism has been gradually improved, and the carbon finance coverage corresponding to the carbon market has been expanded, playing a service and guiding role in carbon peak and carbon neutralization. The basis of carbon finance is the carbon market. The transaction object of carbon market is the basic assets of carbon finance. Carbon financial products are mainly the mapping of mainstream financial products in the carbon market. Carbon finance includes not only the on-site market, but also the off-site market.
In the global voluntary carbon emission reduction trading mechanism, the international carbon emission reduction mechanism still dominates the stock projects, but the independent carbon emission reduction mechanism has developed rapidly. From the development trend of incremental projects, the registered volume of global carbon emission reduction projects increased by 11% year-on-year in 2020, and the newly issued carbon emission reduction reached 358 million tons, of which more than half of the projects came from the independent carbon emission reduction mechanism, and the emission reduction certified by the independent carbon emission reduction mechanism increased by 30% year-on-year, The voluntary carbon emission reduction market has gradually changed from dominated by international carbon emission reduction mechanism to dominated by independent carbon emission reduction mechanism and China's emission reduction mechanism. The voluntary commitment of enterprises is the main driving force for the increase of carbon credit demand. As more and more companies around the world promise to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, the demand for carbon credit drives the independent carbon emission reduction mechanism to maintain rapid development.
The mandatory emission reduction market will focus on the construction of national and regional carbon markets in the short term, but the standards will gradually converge and the markets will gradually recognize each other. In the carbon quota trading market, at present, there are great differences in the trading rules of the carbon market in various countries around the world, and the carbon trading price is greatly different according to the degree of regional economic development. There are great obstacles to the construction of the global unified carbon market in the short term. However, due to the influence of trade, EU carbon border regulation mechanism (CBAM) and other factors, the accounting and other relevant standards of carbon quota will accelerate the unification and mutual recognition.
In the coming period, China's carbon market mechanism will be further improved. High carbon industries will be gradually incorporated into the national carbon market, and the scale of the carbon market will increase steadily. Referring to the national carbon trading price and local carbon market price, when the quota trading proportion is 5%, the annual carbon market trading volume is 32-44 billion yuan, and when the quota trading proportion is 10%, the annual carbon market trading volume is 64-88 billion yuan. The innovation of on-site and off-site financial products based on carbon quotas and approved carbon emission reductions will continue to be promoted.
Given that China's carbon emissions are still at the peak stage, the market space for carbon related businesses is larger and more deterministic, especially in carbon measurement, carbon inventory, quota Carbon Asset Management, emission reduction Carbon Asset Management, etc. at present, indirect measurement methods are mainly used, the market is still in the initial stage, and carbon detection equipment mainly focuses on scientific and technological research and development and demonstration. Equipment + platform enterprises have more core advantages in carbon measurement and detection in the future. Carbon linked financial product innovation will continue. ESG investment and carbon emission linked financial product innovation will become the focus of investment and financing in the future.
