\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 516 Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) )
Event: according to the WeChat official account of April 6, 2022, the order was Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) batch aluminum wire bonding machine.
Key investment points
Obtained Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) batch orders and achieved a breakthrough in quantity and quality in the semiconductor bonding machine business: the company set up a project to develop the semiconductor bonding machine in 2018, completed the internal verification of the bonding machine in 2020, and began to try it on the client at the beginning of 2021. On November 29, 2021, Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) obtained the first batch of aluminum wire bonding machine orders without Sidley core, and the products in 2021 have been verified in 10 + sealing and testing plants Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) as the first batch of trial customers, the company began to verify the bonding machine from March to may 2021. After more than one year of comprehensive test and full load mass production verification, Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) highly affirmed the performance of Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) aluminum wire bonding machine. On April 6, 2022, Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) won the order of Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) batch bonding machine. The company has achieved a breakthrough in the number of ; (2) Quality breakthrough: Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) officially entered the supply system of Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) and other head sealing and testing plants, which verified the technical strength of the company's bonding machine.
Breaking through the quality endorsement of high-end customers, customer extension and expansion is expected to be implemented smoothly: the initial verification cycle of semiconductor equipment is long, and Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) received the batch order from Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) head sealing and testing factory, which represents the recognition of the company's equipment and technology. We judge that some customers' breakthroughs do not need to be verified. As long as Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) and other head customers purchase Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) equipment, these customers will follow Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) and other head customers to purchase Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) equipment. Therefore, the verification of Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) is the recognition and endorsement of the company's technical strength and can help Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) further develop more potential customers. In the future, the company's semiconductor bonding machine has two goals: (1) customer breakthrough: get the orders of Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) , China Resources, Huatian and other head customers, which represents the recognition of the company's equipment and technology; (2) Quantity breakthrough: at present, the company's products are on trial in 10 + customers, and some customers have the intention of small batch orders. There are more than 300 potential customers of Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) in China. With the expansion of customer base, the number of bonding machine business of the company is expected to achieve further breakthrough in 2022.
Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) has obvious advantages over the global leading library cable method. When the localization of semiconductor bonding machine is in progress: Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) extends the core technology accumulated by series welding machine to semiconductor bonding machine. The performance of the company's products has reached the global advanced level and has met the technical and yield requirements for formal mass production. K & S is the traditional leader of aluminum wire bonding machine, but it is not competitive in delivery date and price. (1) Delivery period: the normal delivery period of coolisole method is 3-5 months, but the delivery period under the background of short supply of semiconductor equipment is 10-11 months, which provides the best period for domestic substitution. In contrast, the Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) delivery period is only 2-3 months. (2) Price: the price of kulisofa is 250000 US dollars / set (about 1.5-1.6 million yuan), and the Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) price is about 1.3 million yuan, which can still maintain a high gross profit margin. In 2021, China will import about 30000 + bonding machines (including aluminum wire and gold copper wire), of which aluminum wire accounts for about 10-15%, that is, 3 Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) 0 sets. According to the price of 250000 US dollars each, the market demand will total 800-1 billion US dollars, about 5-6 billion yuan; The price of domestic equipment is about 20% lower than that of imported equipment, so the market space of domestic equipment is about 4-5 billion yuan. We expect Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) relying on its excellent performance, competitive price and delivery date, it is expected to continuously increase its market share and continue to promote the localization process of semiconductor bonding machine.
Profit forecast and investment rating: with the continuous prosperity of photovoltaic module equipment + smooth expansion of new fields, we maintain the company's net profit forecast of parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 355 / 51 / 660 million respectively, corresponding to 59 / 41 / 32 times of the current share price PE, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the industry competition intensifies, the expansion of new products is less than the market expectation, and the expansion of downstream production is less than the market expectation.
