\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 202 Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) )
Investment logic
The installed capacity of wind power has officially stepped into the growth stage from a cyclical one. 2010, 2015 and 2020 are the three rush installation periods of historical wind power. After the first two rush installations, the installed capacity of wind power has fallen for two consecutive years, showing a cyclical trend. 2021 is the first year of land wind parity. The cost of large-scale fans will be reduced rapidly and the IRR will be improved, so as to stimulate the installed demand of downstream wind power. According to wood Mackenzie’s statistics, the newly signed order capacity of wind power in China reached 55.2gw in 2021, higher than 31.1gw in 2020. In 2021, it is expected that the installed capacity of wind power will reach a record high of 60GW in 2022, and the installed capacity of wind power will officially enter the growth stage.
Goldwind is the leader of wind power machine, ranking first in installed capacity for 11 consecutive years Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) is one of the first enterprises to enter the field of wind power equipment manufacturing in China. After more than 20 years of development, it has grown into a leading provider of overall wind power solutions in China and the world. Through continuous development and improvement of various product platforms, the company’s products can be applied to different operating environments such as high and low temperature, high altitude and low wind speed, so as to ensure market coverage.
As of 2010, Jinfeng’s cumulative wind power installed capacity accounted for 20.3%, deeply benefiting from the transformation policy of old units. In December 2021, the National Energy Administration issued the draft of the management measures for the transformation, upgrading and decommissioning of wind farms, encouraging the transformation, upgrading and decommissioning of wind farms that have been connected to the grid for more than 15 years. As of 2010, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power in China is 45gw, the cumulative average installed power is 1.3MW, and the number of wind turbines is about 34495. It is estimated that the average power of the unit after replacement is 2.5MW, so the transformation scale is 86gw. It is expected that in the transformation of old units, the wind airport will give priority to the new models of the original wind turbine manufacturers. As of 2010, Jinfeng’s cumulative installed share has reached 20%, and the high share will make the company deeply benefit from this policy.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect the company to realize net profits of 4.1 billion yuan, 4.6 billion yuan and 5.2 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 18%, 13% and 13% respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.96, 1.09 and 1.23 yuan. The company is the leader of the whole wind power machine, which deeply benefits from the long boom of wind power. The current share price corresponding to the three-year PE is 14, 12 and 11 times respectively. The company will give an overall valuation of 18 times in 2022, with a target price of 19.62 yuan / share. It will be covered for the first time, and will be rated as “overweight”.
Risk tips
Policy risk, market competition risk, economic environment and exchange rate fluctuation risk, asset and credit impairment risk.
