\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 53 Jiangxi Sanxin Medtec Co.Ltd(300453) )
Main points:
Hemodialysis is a large industry in the world, with a global market size of more than 80 billion euros
According to the annual report of Fresenius, the number of patients with chronic renal failure receiving hemodialysis increased from 2.52 million in 2013 to 3.7 million in 2020. The market scale of global dialysis industry has steadily increased from 66.8 billion euros in 2015 to 82 billion euros in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of about 4%. By 2021, the market scale of dialysis industry will continue to grow to about 83 billion to 85 billion euros. Fresenius has more than 118000 employees in more than 100 countries around the world, with an annual sales of more than 75000 dialysis machines and more than 100 million dialyzers; At the same time, in terms of dialysis treatment services, Fresenius Medical has more than 3971 hemodialysis centers around the world, providing more than 50 million dialysis treatments for 336716 dialysis patients every year.
The market scale of upstream products in China's hemodialysis industry will be about 30 billion yuan in 2025, of which the import of dialysis machines and dialyzers accounts for more than 80%, and there is a large space for domestic substitution
In 2020, the market scale of dialysis machines, dialyzers, other consumables (powder, liquid, pipeline, etc.) and drugs in China will be about 3.8 billion yuan, 6.6 billion yuan, 5.3 billion yuan and 6.4 billion yuan respectively. With the increase of the market scale of hemodialysis center, the demand for dialysis equipment and consumables will continue to rise. It is expected that the market scale of dialysis equipment, drugs and consumables included in the overall upstream industrial chain will be close to 30 billion yuan in 2025. According to the sales volume of hemodialysis machines in China in 2020 disclosed by medical Zhaocai, the top five foreign-funded manufacturers accounted for about 80% - 90% of the market share of China's hemodialysis market, of which Fresenius ranked first with 30% market share, while the market share of domestic brands represented by Chongqing Shanwaishan, Shandong Weigao, Sanxin and Guangdong Biolight Meditech Co.Ltd(300246) was about 10% - 20%.
The company's dialysis products are developed in the whole industry chain, and the company's vaccine syringes are superimposed to bring incremental benefits to the United Nations
After years of product research and development and market development, the company's "blood purification" products have become a leading enterprise in the field of blood purification in China. The company's "blood purification" products have covered the whole industrial chain products such as hemodialysis machine, dialysis filter, hemodialysis machine, hemodialysis concentrate and disposable hemodialysis pipeline. They have occupied a high market position in the industry and become one of the few enterprises with overall solutions for the whole industrial chain of furniture blood preparation purification in China. The company's subsidiary weilisheng sold 600 hemodialysis machines in 2021. It is expected that with the continuous empowerment of the company's sales capacity and channels in the hemodialysis industry, the next volume will accelerate the growth and drive the rapid volume of other consumables. In the annual report of 2021, the company's sales of hemodialysis equipment increased by 84.94% and 74.93% year-on-year. In addition, the company's vaccine safety syringes are directly supplied to the United Nations. In the United Nations white list, the production line began production in August, and the production capacity will be full by the end of 21. The company's sales of vaccine syringes in 2021 will be 376 million (a year-on-year increase of 321%), and the single product of vaccine syringes will continue to contribute a large increment to the company in 2022, especially in the first quarter.
Investment advice
We expect that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.609 billion yuan, 2.022 billion yuan and 2.516 billion yuan respectively, with revenue growth rates of 38.2%, 25.6% and 24.4% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 206 million yuan, 252 million yuan and 306 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 32.4%, 22.1% and 21.3% respectively, corresponding to 23x, 18x and 15x PE from 2022 to 2024. Considering that there is still a large space for import substitution in the hemodialysis industry, especially dialysis machines and dialyzers, the company's performance in 2022 is significantly thickened and the long logic is clear. We cover it for the first time and give it a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The company's hemodialysis equipment sales fell short of expectations.
Vaccine syringe orders may not be as expected. Risk of product price decline
