\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 987 Shanghai Kindly Enterprises Development Group Co.Ltd(603987) )
Main points:
The terminal of injection and puncture instruments has rich application scenarios and large market demand, with cagr19%. In 2020, the market demand for injection devices was 27.2 billion yuan, with a compound market growth of nearly 5% in China. In the future, due to the expansion of terminal application scenarios, the growth rate of the industry can still be maintained at a high level. (1) Driven by the demand for diagnosis and treatment under the aging population and the upgrading of clinical diagnosis and treatment methods, the demand for clinical injection puncture has increased steadily; (2) With the rapid development of biological agents, the demand for injection and puncture of self-administered drugs has increased greatly. For example, the traditional chronic drugs represented by insulin still have a large penetration space; (3) The demand for medical beauty, high-priced vaccines and other consumer medical attributes has catalyzed the increase in the demand for injection and puncture devices for freshmen.
The company is a leading enterprise in the field of injection and puncture. With product upgrading, the overseas market has gradually become a bright spot. The company is a leading enterprise in the field of injection and puncture. With product upgrading and continuous listing of safety series products (such as safety syringe, safety injection needle, safety blood collection needle, safety pancreatic islet element pen needle, etc.), the overseas market has gradually become a bright spot. The company's products in overseas markets have expanded from general consumption infusion sets and disposable syringes to safety products, and from simple OEM mode to ODM mode. The gross profit margin in overseas markets has also increased significantly, from 13.94% in 2021 to 36.64% in 2020.
The company promotes domestic trade with foreign trade. Insulin pen needles and beauty needles with consumption attributes are expected to become large single products. The registration speed of Chinese products is later than that of overseas markets. For example, safe insulin pen needles have obtained CE certification, and medical beauty blunt needles have also been sold in France as early as possible. At present, Yimei blunt needle has been approved by nmpa, and safe insulin pen needle is expected to be approved in China. Insulin pen needle and beauty needle with strong consumption attribute are expected to become large single products. The company cooperated with Cofoe Medical Technology Co.Ltd(301087) on-line with insulin pen needle, and the sales volume was the first on-line. There is great potential for insulin users in China. It is estimated that the annual demand for supporting pens and needles will exceed 20 billion. Policies such as insulin belt procurement are also expected to accelerate the penetration of insulin in patients. It is estimated that the company's insulin supporting pens and needles will achieve a sales revenue of 250 million yuan in 2025, with a compound growth rate of about 40% from 2021 to 2025. The company's beauty needle is the fist product of the company's medical and beauty division. This product is also the only injection bag product in China approved by nmpa and containing disposable blunt end injection needle. At present, there are a large number of medical and beauty users in China. It is estimated that there will be more than 20 million in 2022. Injection projects are particularly high-frequency, and the demand for beauty needles is expected to be close to 100 million. We expect that blunt needles for medical and beauty use alone will also be a large single product with an income of 500 million yuan.
Investment advice
We expect that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2024 is expected to reach 3.097 billion yuan, 3.871 billion yuan, 4.718 billion yuan and 5.724 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of about 17.05%, 25.03%, 21.88% and 21.33% respectively. Considering the gradual increase in the proportion of the company's high gross margin products, the overall gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company will also increase year by year, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2024 to reach 291 million yuan, 392 million yuan and 490 million yuan and 610 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of about 43.7%, 34.6%, 24.8% and 24.6% respectively. The EPS from 2021 to 2023 are 0.63 yuan, 0.84 yuan and 1.05 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE valuations are 31x, 23x and 18x respectively. In view of the continuous upgrading of the company's products, the smooth expansion of overseas markets, the basic market in China is stable, covering for the first time, and buying rating.
Risk tips
The launch of new products was less than expected.
Risk of centralized purchase of low value consumables.
Risks in Sino US trade relations.
