\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 225 Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) )
Event: on April 6, 2022, the company disclosed the announcement of pre increase of performance in the first quarter of 2022. The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of RMB 5.1 billion to 6 billion in the first quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 51.22% to 77.91%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses was RMB 6.767 billion to RMB 7.667 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 82.37% to 106.62%.
The sharp increase in coal prices promoted the release of the company's performance. From the operating data of the company from January to February, the company achieved coal output of 214311 million tons in the first two months, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.57%, and achieved coal sales of 328855 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 30.5%. Among them, the sales volume of self-produced coal was 208893 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.25%. The decline was basically consistent with the output. The decline in sales volume was mainly due to the reduction of trade coal, and the caliber of the company's consolidated statements changed, Shaanxi Shaanxi coal supply chain management Co., Ltd. is no longer included in the scope of Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) statement consolidation due to its capital increase and actual control by Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) Chemical Group Co., Ltd. Although the production and sales of the company declined, the price rose significantly year-on-year. According to wind data, the average price of Shaanxi Huangling q5000 thermal coal in 2022q1 was 825.45 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 54.16%. The coal price increased greatly, which promoted the release of the company's performance.
The proportion of long-term cooperation is low, and the price rise cycle drives the release of performance flexibility. The proportion of Changxie coal is relatively low, and the sales are mainly land sales. It is expected to obtain higher profit elasticity in the upward cycle of coal price. We expect that the price center will remain high in 2022, and the company's performance elasticity is expected to continue to release.
With abundant cash flow, gaogaohong lays a long-term investment value. According to the announcement, the capital expenditure of the company in recent years mainly focuses on the construction of xiaobaodang No. 2 mine and Shenwei pipeline. Xiaobaodang No. 2 mine has been completed and put into operation, and the capital expenditure of the company will be reduced in the future. As of 2021q3, the company's book monetary capital was 41.887 billion yuan. The asset liability ratio is only 38%. On September 19, 2020, the company announced the dividend plan for 20202022. The company promised that from 2020 to 2022, the company would distribute dividends in cash, stock or a combination of the two. On the premise of meeting the normal capital needs of the company, give priority to the distribution of dividends in cash. The profit distributed in cash every year shall not be less than 40% of the distributable profit realized in the current year and the amount shall not be less than 4 billion yuan; If conditions permit, the company will choose to make interim profit distribution. In 2020, the company's dividend will be 7.756 billion yuan, with a cash dividend payment rate of 52.11%. In 2021, the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 20.936 billion yuan. Assuming that the dividend is distributed according to the minimum proportion of 40% promised by the company, the dividend is expected to be about 8.374 billion yuan, with a dividend rate of 5.42% (closing price on April 6, 2022, the same later; the valuation model is calculated according to the proportion of 50% dividend); Assuming a cash dividend rate of 52.11% in 2020, the dividend is expected to be about 10.901 billion yuan, with a dividend rate of about 7.06%. The dividend yield is high and the investment value is high.
Investment suggestion: according to the performance forecast, the profit forecast is raised. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 20.936 billion yuan, 29.941 billion yuan and 30.908 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 2.16/3.09/3.19 yuan / share respectively, and PE corresponding to the closing price on April 6, 2022 will be 7 times, 5 times and 5 times respectively. The valuation in the industry is low. Maintain a "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: coal prices have fallen sharply, and the improvement of downstream demand margin is less than expected.
