\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 461 Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) )
Key investment points
Event: Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) released the 21st Annual Report. In the 21st year, the company achieved a revenue of 4.538 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 611 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. Among them, 21q4 company achieved a revenue of 820 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.44%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 17 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 74.13%.
97 black gold pure production is fast and large-scale, and the short-term cost side is relatively under pressure. Throughout 2021, Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) achieved a sales volume of 1276300 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. Among them, the annual sales growth of high-end pure students and 97 black gold pure students reached 17% / 103.2%, and the upgrading trend of product structure was significant. In 2022, Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) will continue to focus on the “3 + n” brand strategy, and gradually upgrade the product structure to the medium and high-end. In terms of canning rate, Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) 21 year canning sales reached about 410000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, driving the canning rate to increase by 0.8pct to 32.2% Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) will continue to give full play to its advantages in non ready to drink channels in Guangdong and optimize its profitability by improving the canning rate. From the perspective of ton price, Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) 21 year-on-year decline of 0.7% in the overall ton price of beer to 3362 yuan / ton is mainly due to the intensified market competition in Guangdong, and the company may improve channel promotion to maintain its competitiveness. From the cost side, the cost per ton in Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) 21 increased by 9.7% to 1888 yuan / ton, mainly due to the upward cost of barley and packaging materials. The subsequent companies further strengthened the procurement management of raw materials and absorbed the upward pressure of costs by increasing the proportion of medium and high-end. In terms of gross profit margin, Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) 21 years was squeezed by cost pressure and intensified competition, and the gross profit margin of beer business decreased by 5.35pcts to 43.8% year-on-year. Looking forward to 22 years, Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) will continue to strengthen high-end and pay more attention to marketing quality. It is expected to make better breakthroughs in sales and quality in the future.
The high-end products are not afraid of the impact of the epidemic, and the pure raw series has increased the offensive strength of the meal and drink end. 22q1 Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) may be affected by the point outbreak of the epidemic in Guangdong, and the sales volume may be impacted in March. It is expected that Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) is expected to show a good growth in the peak season of 22q2 with the gradual improvement of the epidemic. According to the data of China International Beer network, Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) from January to February 2022, the sales volume increased by 8.78% year-on-year, and it is expected that the sales volume of Q1 will still achieve single digit growth. In terms of high-end, Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) or continue to cut into the catering track through the pure raw series, create offline crayfish Beer Festival and other activities with “beer + food”, and improve its proportion in the catering end. In addition, the Pearl River continues to hold on to the basic price of the zero degree series and realize the occupation of the price band by taking the initiative to raise the price.
The leading high-end of South China beer has been continuously promoted and the “buy” rating has been maintained. In view of the pressure of beer cost in 22 years and the repeated impact of the epidemic, we expect to achieve a revenue of 4.946/5.246/5.556 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 9.0% / 6.1% / 5.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 744 / 811 / 880 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.7% / 9.0% / 8.5%; Corresponding to PE 23.86/21.89/20.17x. Considering the rapid progress of Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) high-end, we maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; The progress of high-end is less than expected; Increased competition; The moving pin is not as expected
