\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 516 Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) )
Key investment points
Semiconductor bonding machine: obtained Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) batch order; Domestic substitution space is broad, and it is expected to rebuild a Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516)
1) according to the official WeChat official account. The company obtained the order of Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) sub batch aluminum wire bonding machine Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) is the first batch of trial customers of the company. After more than one year’s test and verification, the company’s products have reached the level of similar foreign equipment in key technical indicators such as production capacity, precision, yield, productivity and stability.
2) previously, in November 2021, the company had received the first batch of equipment orders from Wuxi delixin (the first trial customer). This time, the company’s head customer of semiconductor packaging and testing ( Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) is the world’s fifth largest semiconductor packaging and testing factory) has been recognized and won batch orders. It is expected that the company’s bonding machine business is expected to accelerate in the future.
3) market space: according to the data of China’s customs, the import volume of China’s semiconductor bonding machine in 2021 is about US $1.6 billion (about 10 billion yuan), which is more than twice the market space of photovoltaic series welding machine. It is expected to be the first import company in China. Short term: benefiting from multiple technological changes in the photovoltaic industry, the equipment iteration is accelerated (only 1.5-2 years). The company is the leader in 70% market share of series welding machine, which fully benefits. At the same time, the company’s layout of photovoltaic single crystal furnace and its value is 6 times that of series welding machine, opening up the space for performance growth. Medium and long term: the company’s platform layout opens the second growth curve of performance. The company’s semiconductor bonding machine equipment is progressing smoothly, has received batch orders, and is expected to relay the large-scale production of photovoltaic equipment in the next 2-3 years. Lithium battery equipment orders accelerated, covering core high-quality customers.
2022 equity incentive plan: reissue equity incentive within half a year, raise performance assessment objectives, and demonstrate the company’s confidence
1) issue the equity incentive plan for 2022: it is proposed to grant 950000 restricted shares at a price of 110 yuan / share. Incentive objects account for 39% of the total number of employees. The company has issued equity incentive twice in a row in recent half a year, with a wide range of incentive personnel and binding to the core members of the company.
2) increase the unlocking conditions of incentive performance: Based on 2021, the growth rate from 2022 to 2024 shall not be less than 50% / 100% / 150% respectively. The corresponding net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 430 / 630 / 810 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 34% / 46% / 30%. Compared with the previous equity incentive plan, the minimum deduction of non parent net profit in 20222024 increased by 47 / 94 / 170 million yuan respectively, highlighting the company’s confidence in future development.
Performance in 2021 exceeded expectations: 129% year-on-year growth, exceeding the upper limit of performance forecast; Orders continued to rise
1) performance in 2021: the revenue reached 2.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 79%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 355 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 129%, exceeding the upper limit of performance forecast, the net interest rate reached 17.3% (year-on-year + 3.7pct), and the performance and profitability exceeded expectations.
2) orders on hand: by the end of the third quarter of 2021, the company’s orders on hand had reached 3.625 billion yuan (including tax), a year-on-year increase of 55%. Superimposed on the orders announced by Q4 company in 2021, it is estimated that the orders on hand will exceed 4 billion yuan by the end of 2021 (2.4 billion yuan by the end of 2020).
Investment suggestion: optimistic about the company’s performance in the field of photovoltaic, semiconductor and lithium battery equipment in the next five years. It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 360 / 470 / 630 million yuan from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 129% / 32% / 34%, corresponding to 59 / 45 / 33 times of PE. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the downstream expansion of photovoltaic production is less than expected; The development progress of semiconductor equipment is lower than expected.
