\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 284 Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) )
China's basic braking leader actively develops businesses such as electronic braking and intelligent driving
The company is a leading enterprise of basic braking in China. At present, the categories of basic braking products cover a wide range, including disc brake, drum brake, brake pump, etc. The company has a leading market share in China's basic braking market. Its customers cover mainstream independent brand passenger car enterprises, gradually open the global supporting market, and successively obtain the project fixed points of general gem platform, Volkswagen MLB platform, PSA Europe, etc. The basic braking business of the company is basically stable, the electronic auxiliary braking business is fast and large-scale, and the businesses such as brake by wire, ADAS and hub motor bring long-term highlights. With the continuous development of new customers and new businesses and the optimization of product structure, the company's profits are expected to be repaired rapidly. We expect that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 3.63/45.9/5.47 billion respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 0.44/1.10/155 billion, the EPS will be RMB 0.06/0.15/0.21/share, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 123.4/49.5/35.0 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and the company will be rated as "overweight".
The proportion of electronic control system business has increased rapidly, and the layout of two-line braking by wire has been steadily promoted
The company is the first independent supplier in China to develop automotive hydraulic ABS system, and took the lead in mass production in 2004. At present, electronic control system products include ABS, EPB, ESC, etc. in 2020, electronic control system business accounted for 11.5%, a significant increase of 5pcts compared with 2018. In terms of braking by wire, the company has rich technical reserves. The two box system has achieved mass production in 2020, and one box has been tested on Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) and other sample vehicle models. According to the data the company answered investors' questions, the project of mass-produced vehicle models of one box system is progressing steadily. The shortage of chips brings opportunities for domestic replacement of electronic braking system. With the continuous launch of new production capacity of electronic braking system and the continuous development of market development, the company's electronic braking business is expected to enter a rapid growth period.
In 2017, the rapid launch of production capacity has affected the profit, and the proportion of revenue of electric control system will increase or improve the profit in the future
Since 2017, the rapid release of the company's basic brake products such as disc brakes has dragged down the overall capacity utilization, superimposed with the sharp rise in the price of raw materials and other factors, and the company's profitability has been affected. With the continuous supply of new customers and new projects, the capacity utilization rate of the company's basic braking products may be improved. At the same time, the proportion of revenue of automotive electronic control system business with high gross profit margin is increased, which is expected to further improve the company's profitability.
Risk tip: the prosperity of the automobile industry is lower than expected; The progress of new business is less than expected; The price of raw materials fluctuated sharply.
