\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 346 Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) )
Key investment points
Event: in 2021, the operating revenue was 19.97 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29.92%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.531 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.37%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 14.521 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.79%. 2021q4 achieved an operating revenue of 46.482 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.22%, a month on month decrease of 0.92%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.819 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.95%, a month on month decrease of 30.73%, and a deduction of non attributable net profit of 2.506 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.69% and a month on month decrease of 33.16%.
Comments:
Refining and chemical integration has significant synergy benefits and continuously strengthened profitability. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 15.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.37%; Q4 realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.819 billion in a single quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 20.95%. In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin in 2021 was 15.38%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.16pct, the net profit margin was 7.85%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.01pct, roe was 30.07%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.48pct; The gross profit margin of 2021q4 was 14.21%, increased by 1.11pct year-on-year, decreased by 2.59pct month on month, the net profit margin was 6.07%, decreased by 1.24pct year on year, decreased by 2.62pct month on month, roe was 5.06%, decreased by 2.83pct year on year and 2.74pct month on month. In terms of period expenses, the total period expense rate of the company in 2021 was 4.15%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.94pct. Among them, the sales expense rate was 0.15%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.03pct, the management expense (including R & D expenses, comparable caliber) rate was 1.52%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.15pct, and the financial expense rate was 2.48%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.82pct. On the one hand, the company gives full play to the comprehensive operation advantages of "scale + process + supporting facilities" and continuously improves the comprehensive cost and operation efficiency, so as to reduce costs and increase efficiency. On the other hand, under the integrated layout, the company actively adjusts the product structure to realize "oil is oil, olefin is olefin and aromatic is aromatic", flexibly respond to product price fluctuations and achieve stable profits.
As the oil price rises, the price difference of products increases and expands, and the "big chemical" platform has significant advantages. In terms of production capacity, the company has a refining and chemical production capacity of 20 million tons per year and a raw coal processing capacity of 5 million tons. The downstream aromatics link includes 4.5 million tons of PX, 1.2 million tons of pure benzene and 11.6 million tons of PTA, the olefin link includes 1.8 million tons of fiber grade ethylene glycol, 850000 tons of polypropylene, 720000 tons of styrene, 400000 tons of high-density polyethylene and 140000 tons of butadiene, and the coal chemical link includes 750000 tons of methanol, 400000 tons of acetic acid, 300000 tons of pure hydrogen and 126000 tons of liquid nitrogen, At the same time, it is fully equipped with 520mw high-power self owned power plant (providing a large amount of low-cost power and steam at all levels for self use), self owned crude oil wharf (two 300000 ton levels), China's largest refinery self owned crude oil tank farm (capable of storing 6 million tons of crude oil) and other complete finished raw material wharf and tank farm storage and other public works, which greatly reduces the production and operation cost, and the "big chemical" platform has significant advantages. In terms of price, according to wind, the average price of 2021brent crude oil was US $71 / barrel, an increase of 63.4% year-on-year. With the gradual improvement of the global epidemic, domestic and foreign demand continued to pick up, and the rise of oil price led to the rise of the price of main products. The average prices of 2021px, ethylene glycol, pure benzene, polypropylene, styrene, high-density polyethylene and butadiene were 5547 yuan / ton, 5232 yuan / ton, 7100 yuan / ton, 9689 yuan / ton, 8879 yuan / ton, 8972 yuan / ton and 7976 yuan / ton respectively, Year on year growth of 39.0%, 36.0%, 79.5%, 13.5%, 45.5%, 12.8% and 27.3%; The current crude oil price fluctuates at a high level. The average price in 2022q1 is $98 / barrel, an increase of 22.9% month on month. The average prices of ethylene glycol, pure benzene, polypropylene, styrene, high-density polyethylene and butadiene in 2022q1 are 6884 yuan / ton, 5175 yuan / ton, 7887 yuan / ton, 9077 yuan / ton, 9199 yuan / ton, 9359 yuan / ton and 7785 yuan / ton respectively, an increase of 20.5%, - 6.5%, 8.1%, - 4.5%, 4.6%, 1.0% and 27.4% month on month. The overall product price is still high. In terms of new projects, the 5 million T / a PTA capacity of Huizhou Daya Bay petrochemical park is expected to be put into operation in 2022. With the latest NVIDIA P8 + technology, it is expected to further reduce the unit consumption of raw materials and comprehensive operation cost. After being put into operation, the company's capacity will reach 16.6 million T / A, becoming the PTA leader with the largest capacity, the most advanced technology and the most significant cost advantage in the world.
New materials blossom in many places, deepen processing and lead growth. The company has built a "big chemical" platform based on refining and coal chemical industry, laying a solid raw material foundation and industrial supporting conditions for the company to open up new chemical materials business downstream of aromatics and olefins with scale advantages and market potential. Differentiated polyester fiber field: the company has launched the construction of Jiangsu Xuanda (Hengke phase III) 1.5 million green multifunctional textile new material project, with a total investment of 9 billion yuan, mainly including 150000 tons of new elastic fiber, 150000 tons of environmental protection fiber, 300000 tons of cationic POY, 300000 tons of fully matting POY and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of differentiated fiber (300000 tons / year POY, 300000 tons / year FDY). After putting into operation, the total annual profit is expected to be about 1.3 billion yuan. In addition, the new production capacity of 1.2 million tons of civil silk in Deli phase II and 1.4 million tons of industrial silk in Suzhou headquarters are also in the project planning stage. The construction will be started gradually and quickly with the approval progress or project implementation conditions. After the completion of the project, the technical thickness, R & D attributes and product added value of the company's civil polyester silk business segment will be further improved. Functional films and Engineering Plastics: Kanghui new materials, a wholly-owned subsidiary, has an annual production capacity of 240000 tons of PBT engineering plastics, 33000 tons of PBAT and 385000 tons of BOPET functional films. It is committed to the development of film functions such as electronic and electrical film substrates, environmental protection new energy substrates and precision online coating products. In terms of new production capacity, 450000 tons of PBS / PBAT degradable plastics project is under construction in Changxing Island, Dalian, There are 800000 tons of functional polyester film and functional plastic projects under construction in FenHu, Suzhou, including 470000 tons of high-end functional polyester film, 100000 tons of special functional film, 150000 tons of modified PBT and 80000 tons of modified PBAT. Benefiting from the accelerated popularization of the "plastic restriction order", the company has a broad market in the field of biodegradable plastics. Lithium battery diaphragm field: Kanghui new materials has introduced 12 wet lithium battery diaphragm production lines from Japan Zhipu Machinery Co., Ltd. and Qingdao Zhongke Hualian new materials, with an annual capacity of 1.6 billion square meters. It is planned to complete the delivery in the middle of 2023.
It is planned to implement an employee stock ownership plan of nearly 10 billion yuan to demonstrate confidence in long-term development. The company issued the announcement of Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) phase VI employee stock ownership plan (Draft) in March, and simultaneously announced the suggestive announcement of Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) about the employees of the controlling shareholders and their affiliated enterprises planning to purchase the company's shares through special financial products. The upper limit of the total amount of shares purchased by the employee stock ownership plan of the listed company and the group's stock ownership plan is about 9.86 billion yuan, and the ratio of financing funds to self raised funds is no more than 1:1, of which the upper limit of Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) employee stock purchase is 7.38 billion yuan, and the upper limit of controlling shareholders and employees of their affiliated enterprises to purchase the company's shares is 2.48 billion yuan. The large-scale ESOP shows the company's strong confidence and determination for future development.
Risk warning: risk of large fluctuation of oil price and products; Risk of capacity release less than expected; The deterioration of the epidemic affects the demand risk.
Profit forecast: according to the production progress of the company's polyester fiber, functional film and engineering plastics, PBAT / PBS and other products, we adjust the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 will be 16.916 billion yuan (formerly 17.916 billion yuan), 25.058 billion yuan (formerly 22.248 billion yuan) and 27.991 billion yuan (newly added) respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
