\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 346 Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) )
Performance review
Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) on April 6, 2022, the annual report of 2021 was disclosed. In 2021, the annual operating revenue was 19.8 billion yuan, an increase of 29.9% over 2020, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.531 billion yuan, an increase of 15.4% over 2020. In Q4 of 2021, the operating revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company reached 46.508 billion yuan and 2.819 billion yuan respectively, down 5.2% and 21.0% respectively compared with the same period in 2020.
Business analysis
The sharp rise in cost side reduces the profits of stock link: in the fourth quarter of 2021, the price of crude oil and coal continued to show an upward trend. Referring to the quarterly operation data disclosed by Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) disclosure, the purchase prices of crude oil and coal from January to December 2021 were 3262.7 yuan / ton and 849 yuan / ton respectively, with a corresponding increase of 50.6% and 67.5% respectively, and a month on month increase of 6.4% and 13.4% respectively from January to September 2021, The average sales price of products from January to December 2021 was 4783 yuan / ton, an increase of 29.4% year-on-year in 2020 and 6.2% month on month from January to September 2021. The increase of weighted sales price of terminal products was lower than that of raw materials, and the narrowing of price difference put pressure on profits.
Continue to promote the layout of deep processing and new energy industries, and open the secondary growth curve of incremental capacity: 1.6 million tons / year high-performance resin and new material projects, 2.6 million tons of high-performance polyester projects and lithium battery diaphragm projects are expected to further improve the layout of the company's industrial chain. Among them, the terminal demand increment of polycarbonate, electronic grade DMC, ABS and other products mainly comes from the new energy and new material market. Kanghui new material, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, has introduced 12 wet lithium battery diaphragm production lines, and the annual production capacity can reach 1.6 billion square meters after putting into operation. The new material project and lithium diaphragm project promote the extension of the company's industrial chain to the field of new materials and new energy, which is expected to open the company's secondary growth curve.
Investment advice
At present, the price center of the raw material side continues to rise, while the investment and construction of terminal high value-added products takes time. In 2022, the price difference of each stock link may continue to be under pressure. However, after 2023, the production of large-scale high value-added products will help the company continuously get rid of the impact of the cost side. We lowered the profit forecast from 2022 to 2023. Under the bottom scenario of extreme prosperity in the industry, Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) the profit forecast from 2022 to 2024 is 10.2 billion yuan / 16 billion yuan / 25 billion yuan, corresponding to 1.4 yuan / 2.3 yuan / 3.6 yuan of EPS from 2022 to 2024. The reduction ranges from 2022 to 2023 are 48% and 37% respectively, and the corresponding P / E ratio is 14.5x / 9.2x / 5.9x, maintaining the "buy" rating
Risk tips
1. Risk of large one-way fluctuation of oil price; 2. Serious terminal demand and deteriorating demand 3 Geopolitical risk 4 The construction progress of the project is less than expected Risk of large fluctuation of US dollar exchange rate 6 Other force majeure effects
