\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 499 Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) )
Events
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022 on the evening of April 6. In the first quarter of 2022, the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 900 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 371.91%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was about 871 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 388.22%.
Commentary
Q1 performance was slightly lower than expected due to shipment. Q1’s building materials machinery business continued to expand the market, the output of building ceramics in Africa increased year-on-year, and the main business developed steadily. The average price of Q1 battery grade lithium carbonate is 437400 yuan / ton, up 102% from the average price of Q4 in 21 years. Affected by factors such as the reduction of winter production and inventory, the shipment of Q1 lithium carbonate may be lower than expected, and the expected shipment is about 6000 tons, resulting in the company’s Q1 performance slightly lower than expected.
Integrated layout of negative electrode business and new field of lithium battery equipment. In January 22, the company’s subsidiary Kehua graphite introduced its strategic partner beiteri (holding 6.34%) and actively promoted its graphitization capacity construction. At present, the company’s negative electrode business has formed an integrated capacity layout of “50000 T / a forged coke – 30000 T / a graphitization – 10000 t / a artificial graphite – 1000 t / a silicon carbon negative electrode”. 10000 t / a graphitization and 10000 t / a artificial graphite capacity construction will continue to be added during the year. Fujian Kehua has obtained the approval of the energy-saving report of new 50000 T / a graphitized negative electrode materials in December 21, and is expected to start construction in the second half of 22. Anhui new materials, a subsidiary, has reached a strategic cooperation with Zhongtian energy storage to jointly explore the business of negative electrode materials for energy storage batteries. In March 22, the company plans to raise no more than 2.1 billion yuan to build three major projects and supplement current, including high-end manufacturing lines such as building materials and lithium battery equipment, and develop new fields of lithium battery equipment.
Lanke’s performance is flexible and contributes rich investment income. Volume: it is estimated that the output of lithium carbonate in 22-23 years will be 35000 tons and 40000 tons respectively, the price: the average price of lithium in 22-23 years will be 400000 yuan / ton and 300000 yuan / ton, and the cost: the full cost including tax will be 37000 yuan / ton. It is estimated that the investment income contributed by Lanke lithium industry in 22-23 years will be 4.1 billion and 3.4 billion yuan respectively, and the performance will enter the explosive period. Qinghai has accelerated the construction of a world-class Salt Lake production base with a planned production capacity of about 100000 tons. Lanke lithium has great possibility of subsequent production expansion and has growth potential in the medium and long term.
Profit forecast & investment suggestions
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 5.955 billion yuan, 5.991 billion yuan and 6.154 billion yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS will be 3.15 yuan, 3.17 yuan and 3.26 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 5.8 times, 5.8 times and 5.6 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The uncertainty of lithium salt price trend in the later stage increases; The growth rate of lithium salt demand was lower than expected.
