\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 284 Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) )
Event overview: on April 6, 2022, the company issued the 2021 annual performance express and performance forecast amendment announcement. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 3.631 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.29%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 44 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 168.37%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was – 17 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.42%. At the same time, the company released the performance forecast of Q1 in 2022. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 20-30 million in 2022q1, a year-on-year increase of + 33.28% – 99.93%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 15-25 million, a year-on-year increase of + 59.69% – 166.15%.
In 21 years, the company’s revenue exceeded expectations, and the performance of 22q1 exceeded expectations. The inflection point of the company has come. The performance reversal is imminent. In 21 years, the company achieved a revenue of 3.631 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.29%, exceeding our expectations; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 44 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 168.37%. The net profit attributable to the parent company decreased slightly (the net profit attributable to the parent company in the early performance forecast was 63-73 million yuan), which was mainly due to the sharp decline in the performance of the company’s associated enterprise Beijing Asia Pacific and the single withdrawal of large amount of bad debt reserves due to financial difficulties of some customers. Based on the principle of prudence, the company made a single withdrawal of bad debt reserves for accounts receivable according to the expected recoverable amount. In the past few years, with the periodic adjustment of the industry, the company continued to optimize the customer structure. At present, the downstream customers are mainly head enterprises such as great wall, Chang’an, Volkswagen and Honda. The anti risk ability of downstream customers continues to improve. It is expected that the bad debt provision will be a single impact. Meanwhile, in 2022q1, the company is expected to realize net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 20-30 million, a year-on-year increase of + 33.28% – 99.93%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 15-25 million, a year-on-year increase of + 59.69% – 166.15%. 22q1’s performance continued to maintain high growth, mainly due to the implementation of new products of basic brakes and head car enterprises such as great wall, Geely, GAC Honda and Dongfeng Honda, and the gradual mass production of the project; At the same time, with the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the company’s electronic products continue to be recognized by the independent main engine manufacturers such as great wall and Zero run, and the electronic products continue to be in large quantities; The rebound of the basic brake at the bottom and the accelerated penetration of electronic products helped the company usher in a performance inflection point.
Basic brake products and electronic brake products are driven by two wheels. The company has entered a new round of high-speed growth. As the core safety part, automobile brake products have high requirements for product quality control and manufacturing process. On the basis of basic braking, gradually upgrade automotive electronics (ABS / ESC / EPB) and finally upgrade to brake by wire (IBS), which is the development path of mainstream braking enterprises in the international market. The company’s high-quality and extensive customer structure in the field of basic braking and many years of stable mass production and supply experience provide an important entry point for its further upgrading to line control. At the same time, as the earliest enterprise in China to develop and produce ABS, the company has recently achieved mass production of a variety of automotive electronic products for China’s core independent brands. At present, the company has carried out close cooperation with core independent brands such as FAW, Dongfeng, great wall, SAIC, Geely and Chang’an, as well as core new power auto enterprises such as Zero run automobile, and its products continue to be recognized by customers. Independent brands are rising in an all-round way and their share continues to increase. The company is expected to achieve “accompanying growth” with independent brands and realize the import substitution of core automotive electronic products. The company has focused on the field of automotive braking for many years. The “two wheel drive” of basic braking and automotive electronics business is expected to achieve import substitution, and drive the company to achieve high-quality growth in the next 3-5 years.
Investment suggestion: the company’s products accelerate the volume, and we raise the revenue in 2021. It is expected that the company will achieve a revenue of RMB 3.63/41.9/5.47 billion from 2021 to 2023; Affected by the performance of associated companies, we lowered the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 44 / 122 / 199 million from 2021 to 2023. The current market value corresponds to 123 / 45 / 27 times of PE from 2021 to 2023, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuations lead to low expectations of gross profit margin, less than expected expansion of new products, exchange rate risk, etc
