\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 276 Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) )
Event: Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) herpes zoster live attenuated vaccine marketing license application accepted
On April 7, Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) issued an announcement, disclosing that the company recently received the notice of acceptance of the application for marketing license of live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine (0.5ml per bottle after re dissolution, containing varicella zoster virus should not be less than 4.3 LG PFU) issued by the drug evaluation center of the state drug administration. Registration classification: class 3.2 biological products for prevention, acceptance number: cxss2200036.
Comments:
Benefiting from the rapid growth of adult vaccine market + aging population, the potential market space of herpes zoster vaccine is broad.
Benefiting from the low adult vaccination rate, the improvement of industry standardization, the continuous enhancement of people’s vaccination awareness, the improvement of payment ability and willingness, and the development of new vaccines, China’s non immunization planning vaccine market is in the period of industry integration and scale acceleration. It is expected that the compound growth rate will be more than 25% in the next few years, and the potential market space is huge. At the same time, the structure of China’s vaccine industry will evolve towards the global vaccine market in the future, gradually showing two characteristics: high concentration and King variety. Therefore, the future growth of China’s vaccine industry depends on the rapid expansion of the non immunization planned vaccine market driven by the new large single product vaccine. On the basis of the rapid expansion of the non immunization planning vaccine market, the target population of the company’s herpes zoster vaccine is adults over 40 years old (about 600 million people) or over 50 years old (about 400 million people), which will further benefit from the incremental market expansion brought by the aging population.
The company’s products will soon become the first blister vaccine listed in China. Compared with imported products, it has the advantages of small side effects and low price. It is expected to be produced by the end of the year. At present, only the imported vaccine produced by GSK in China was put on sale on June 28, 2020 for adults aged 50 and over. Regardless of the impact of the epidemic, herpes zoster vaccine is a large single product that can bring high growth cash flow to manufacturers. Overseas, shingrix was listed and sold at the end of 2017, and its sales increased by 130% year-on-year from 2018 to 2019. Later, affected by covid-19 epidemic, the growth rate of global sales of products decreased significantly in 2020 and decreased year-on-year in 2021. In China, in 2020, a total of 1.6497 million doses were issued by shinrix, with a penetration rate of less than 0.2%. A total of 591700 doses were issued in 2021.
The company has upgraded its sales team in preparation for the listing of blister vaccine.
In order to prepare for the launch of blister vaccine and adapt to the new sales model of adult vaccine, the company has greatly expanded the scale of promoters and sales team. On the one hand, it has increased the coverage of vaccination sites, on the other hand, it has strengthened the terminal publicity of adult vaccine, so as to lay a foundation for the launch of blister vaccine.
The company’s Blister vaccine is expected to grow rapidly into a large single product with billions of yuan. Compared with imported vaccines, the company’s Blister vaccine has the following advantages: because no adjuvant is used, the side effects are less; The price of live attenuated vaccine is relatively low compared with recombinant vaccine, and only one dose is needed; Live attenuated vaccine can better induce cellular immunity; Taking into account the younger trend of herpes zoster patients, the company expanded the applicable age of the vaccine to over 40 years old in the clinical process. The conventional approval cycle of marketing license is generally about 7 months, so the company’s Blister vaccine can be produced by the end of 2022. At present, the company has a maximum capacity of 35 million doses of varicella vaccine, of which about 10 million doses are expected to be allocated to blister belt vaccine.
According to our prediction, if the applicable age of the final blister vaccine is over 50 years old and the post marketing promotion is carried out smoothly, the sales of the product is expected to exceed 800 million yuan in 2025 and nearly 3 billion yuan in 2030; If the applicable age of the final blister vaccine is over 40 years old, the sales of the product is expected to exceed 1.1 billion yuan in 2025 and 4 billion yuan in 2030.
Investment advice: maintain the “buy” rating
The company has a high market share of varicella vaccine and stable sales; Nasal spray influenza vaccine is expected to get rid of the impact of covid-19 epidemic in the third and fourth quarters of 2022, with high sales growth. Therefore, in the short term, the company will usher in performance restoration in 2022. In the medium and long term, the blister vaccine is expected to be sold in 2023. In the follow-up, there will be liquid nasal spray live attenuated influenza vaccine, which may be put on sale in 2025; Lyophilized dosage form crazy vaccine may be put on the market in 2025. To sum up, the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be RMB 1.777/2.556/3.244 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 47.9% / 43.8% / 26.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 491 / 850 / 1116 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 101.5% / 73.1% / 31.3%; The PE of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 37x / 22x / 16x respectively. Considering the sustained and rapid development of the vaccine industry, the differential advantages of the company’s nasal spray influenza vaccine, varicella vaccine and human crazy vaccine, and the long-term growth brought by the continuous listing of heavy products such as herpes zoster vaccine in the next few years, we maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Risk that covid-19 pneumonia may adversely affect the normal production and operation of the company; Risk of clinical trial failure; The risk of new product promotion is less than expected; Risk that the product is not approved as expected, etc.
